Fearless Predictions (Heather Hurlburt & Daniel Drezner)

[Diane1976]

Originally Posted by Baz

Heather says she doesn't think there will be an attack on Iran because there's too much talk about it. What about the lead up to the invasion in Iraq? Constant threats of war...Saddam must disarm...etc...etc.

Maybe a better explanation is that Iran can retaliate where as Iraq couldn't.

Edit: Happy 2012 to Heather and Dan.

It's not clear to me how Iran could retaliate any more than Iraq. They both seem like sitting ducks to me, not necessarily a good reason for attacking them based on some "defence" rationale. Maybe you could explain. I guess you mean that Iran could help some terroist group to fire off a couple of rockets at Israel before it goes under.