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View Poll Results: What will happen in the 2010 Congressional Midterms?
Republicans gain 26 or more seats 1 12.50%
Republicans gain 1625 seats 2 25.00%
Republicans gain 115 seats 4 50.00%
No change 0 0%
Democrats gain 115 seats 1 12.50%
Democrats gain 1625 seats 0 0%
Democrats gain 26 or more seats 0 0%
Voters: 8. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-20-2009, 07:49 PM
TwinSwords TwinSwords is offline
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Heartland Conservative
Posts: 4,933
Default Generic matchup same as 2006, 2008

From Greg Sargent's blog, The Plum Line.

GOP In Same Position In Generic Matchup As In 2008 And 2006

Dont look now, but by one measure, the GOP is in the same position as it was heading into the 2008 and 2006 elections, both of which resulted in crippling landslide losses for the Republican Party.

If you look at the generic Congressional matchup in the internals of the new Washington Post poll, youll see that the Dem advantage over the GOP is virtually identical to what it was heading into the two previous Congressional elections.

Right now, the poll finds that when respondents are asked whether they will vote for a Dem or a GOPer in the 2010 elections, 51% pick the Dem and 39% pick the Republican.

In June of 2008 (the most recent historical data in the WaPo poll), Dems led the generic matchup 52%-37%. And in early November of 2006 the Dem lead was 51%-45%. Today the spread is largely unchanged.

Despite this, GOP cockiness about the midterms is widespread. As GOP Rep John Shadegg put it, speaking about health care: If they pass this bill, I wouldnt want to be a Democrat standing for reelection in 2010.

Its true that there are plenty of other factors to weigh against the above numbers. Anti-incumbent fervor is running high. The GOP base, while dwindling in size, is fired up, while the Dem base could prove demoralized if Obama and Dems punt on the public option. Other polls have found a much tighter generic matchup.

But the above numbers suggest that whatever travails Dems are suffering may well be partly offset by the utter failure of the GOP to translate Dem difficulties into any real gains. By the above measure, at least, the end-zone dancing by some in the Republican Party seems way premature.


Update: A Republican writes in to object that the WaPo poll is polling adults, rather than only voters, which the Republican claims historically favors Dems. But Im told that Wapo polls always sample adults, rather than only voters, this far in advance of an election because its not easy to gague so far in advance whos likely to vote.
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