Go Back   Bloggingheads Community > Diavlog comments
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Notices

Diavlog comments Post comments about particular diavlogs here.
(Users cannot create new threads.)

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-01-2008, 07:28 AM
Bloggingheads Bloggingheads is offline
BhTV staff
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,936
Default The Rise of the Autocracies

Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-01-2008, 10:47 AM
David Edenden David Edenden is offline
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 156
Default On Kosovo

I agree with Robert Kagan that US bombing of Belgrade was correct so that Kosovo could become independent because the Albanians in Kosovo suffered greatly.

In the same vain, I think that Russia should bomb Istanbul so that Turkish Kurdistan could become independent. The Kurds of Turkey suffered more than the Albanians of Kosovo who had minority rights after WW2 while the Kurds of Turkey were denied their very ethnicity during the years Turkish membership in Nato and more than 50,000 died during their uprising and countless villages were destroyed.

I'm sure that Robert Kagan will agree that an independent Turkish Kurdistan will be owed reparations payment from Nato in general, and the United states in particular, for "aiding and abetting" the attempt of Turkey to wipe the Kurds off the map of Turkey.

And don't get me started on the Macedonians of Greece.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-01-2008, 12:11 PM
thouartgob thouartgob is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 765
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

WTF Bob Wright were'd you get the grease to get these guys together ?? Nice work.

The uber Kagan is a advisor/speechwriter for Mccain and coming off the heels of a Frum diavlog it's a "cute" coincidence. ( howsabout McCain/Kagan '08 "Nobody here gets out alive !!" :-) )

Solid diavlog, I think a diavlog for EACH autocracy would have been good.

Kagan's younger bro ( sub-kagan ) believes that we should be bombing Iran soon ( or will inevitably be ) and I wonder if Elder Kagan believes in not wasting bombs on such a small target ??

Last edited by thouartgob; 08-01-2008 at 12:17 PM.. Reason: more drivel
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-01-2008, 12:13 PM
harkin harkin is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,169
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Great opportunity to recommend Kagan's excellent Neocon Nation: Neoconservatism, c. 1776
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-01-2008, 02:18 PM
JerseyBoy JerseyBoy is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 33
Default Re: The Rise of hostilities

It looks like Frank and Bob don't really like each other much. They are usually much more polite.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 08-01-2008, 04:21 PM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Keepin' it real, BH.tv-style.

Not sure why that struck my funny bone, but it did.
__________________
Brendan
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 08-01-2008, 04:46 PM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

I'm aware that viewpoints like Robert's have their uses, if for no other reason than to serve as a periodic reality check on excessive one-world dreaminess (like mine), but whenever I hear assertions like this, I cannot help but wonder how much trouble has been caused and how many dollars have been wasted because hawks on one side place too much weight on what the hawks on the other side say in their hawkiest moments.

Francis did push back on this, but such paranoia bears more than one voice raised in dispute, I think.
__________________
Brendan

Last edited by bjkeefe; 08-01-2008 at 04:49 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 08-01-2008, 04:52 PM
Joel_Cairo Joel_Cairo is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Cambridge MA
Posts: 198
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

most gratifying moment of the week.
__________________
Full Disclosure: I work for BhTV.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 08-01-2008, 05:57 PM
piscivorous piscivorous is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,593
Default Are The Imperialists Standing Down?

Sooner or later, no matter how hard, the truth will be revealed.
Quote:
BAGHDAD, July 31 -- Five American troops died in July as a result of combat in Iraq, by far the lowest monthly U.S. death toll of the five-year war.

The number of Iraq-related American troop fatalities in July -- a total of 13 when noncombat deaths and the discovered bodies of two missing soldiers are included -- is a dramatic drop from just over a year ago, when more than 100 troops a month were confirmed dead for several months in a row.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 08-01-2008, 06:30 PM
EuropeHere EuropeHere is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 7
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

There is a large body of evidence showing that Russia tried consistently to be part of the mainstream US-led sphere, but that it was firmly rebuffed by Washington. Look up the record and you will see that Putin identified with Washington's goals and played by Washington's rules, yet instead of acceptance, Bush announced and is now deploying another multi-billion dollar tax guzzler, the "missile defense" system that will point nuclear weapons directly at Russia. Not a very friendly gesture. However, Russia continues to build strong ties to EU nations. As to that term "autocracy," only yesterday Medvedev, the president, called on authorities to stop harassing businesses, in a speech widely viewed as a challenge to Putin. He said, "In general, law enforcement agencies and authorities must stop making life a nightmare for business." Russia permanently divided from the West? Hardly. Or from the US? Only if Washington insists.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 08-01-2008, 06:34 PM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Mystery Cameo

Wasn't someone collecting things like this -- fleeting appearances -- at one point?

Who is that mysterious woman? Alfred Hitchcock's granddaughter?
__________________
Brendan

Last edited by bjkeefe; 08-01-2008 at 06:41 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 08-01-2008, 07:03 PM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Quote:
Originally Posted by EuropeHere View Post
There is a large body of evidence showing that Russia tried consistently to be part of the mainstream US-led sphere, but that it was firmly rebuffed by Washington. Look up the record and you will see that Putin identified with Washington's goals and played by Washington's rules, yet instead of acceptance, Bush announced and is now deploying another multi-billion dollar tax guzzler, the "missile defense" system that will point nuclear weapons directly at Russia. Not a very friendly gesture. However, Russia continues to build strong ties to EU nations. As to that term "autocracy," only yesterday Medvedev, the president, called on authorities to stop harassing businesses, in a speech widely viewed as a challenge to Putin. He said, "In general, law enforcement agencies and authorities must stop making life a nightmare for business." Russia permanently divided from the West? Hardly. Or from the US? Only if Washington insists.
Good points, EH. I'd add that when Robert pooh-poohed the idea of rebuilding the US relationship with Russia, it struck me as especially juvenile. He seemed to be saying that since we couldn't become BFFs tomorrow, there's no point in trying anything. A simplification of what he probably really thinks, perhaps, but not by much.

As with most diplomatic efforts, we'll need patience. There is lost ground to be made up, and in any case, relationships take time to build. One has to establish trust, get to know the other better (and again), and make new efforts to learn about the other's latest list of priorities.

I have to say that the longer this diavlog went on, the crazier Robert sounded. I kept thinking, "Paging Dr. Strangelove! Paging Dr. Strangelove!" His view of the world, if allowed to sway the thinking of those in power, will do nothing but make things more dangerous and antagonistic. I was glad to hear Frank address this, when he pointed out that an attitude like Robert's, if pushed too far, has a way of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
__________________
Brendan
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 08-01-2008, 10:26 PM
cragger cragger is offline
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 632
Default Re: Star Wars

When you play for high stakes you have to consider the other players. The constraint of the previous status of mutually assured destruction was based on the idea that any first strike between the US and former USSR would leave enough weapons, each probably sporting multiple warheads, that even a relatively small number of surviving missles launched in a return strike would do sufficient damage to the initiating nation that launching a first stike is thereby deterred. However well or poorly one may like to believe the US anti-missle system is likely to work in the real world as opposed to carefully scripted success-based tests, the "best case of it working" fact is inescapable that the initial value of this system is not in protection from a massed first strike, but in potentially blocking a limited return.

It would seem that any political or military leader in Russia or China (if not elsewhere) must absolutely consider that the US is trying to fundamentally change the pre-existing status such as to give the US an effecive first strike capability and absolute hegemony. However much US politicians might quack about the system being all about protection from such as the pathetic and thus far nonexistant threat represented by the North Korean excuse for an intercontinental missle capability, other national leaders are placed in a position in which they are not protecting the interests of their own people if they do not consider some form of strategic counter.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:08 PM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Re: Star Wars

I agree, cragger. Even if we pretend that Star Wars could be made to work, it's a bad program in the light of how it makes other countries feel. This is particularly true if the Star Wars effort goes along with ongoing upgrade programs for our missiles and a continued foot-dragging on reducing our arsenal.

Back in the days when Star Wars was the shiny new thing, I remember hearing floated the idea that when we got it working, we should share the technology with the USSR and other nuclear-armed countries. After all, if it's purely a defensive system, why not let everyone be under the same umbrella, right? And then we'd really have neutralized fears of a missile exchange, right?

The reactions from the warmongering community to this proposal could not have been more telling.
__________________
Brendan
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:11 PM
Baltimoron Baltimoron is offline
Deactivated User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Busan, South Korea (ROK)
Posts: 1,690
Send a message via Skype™ to Baltimoron
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Quote:
I think a diavlog for EACH autocracy would have been good.
I was just about to put this in a shopping list in the other forum. I'm surprised there hasn't been more on China, but not surprised Taiwan has slipped under the radar. Still, the Right Coasters bias for all-Europe, all Israel, all the time is very strong on this site.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:33 PM
Baltimoron Baltimoron is offline
Deactivated User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Busan, South Korea (ROK)
Posts: 1,690
Send a message via Skype™ to Baltimoron
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Yeah, that was cute!

But, seriously, I think it highlights the differences between a realist (Kagan) and liberal (Fukuyama) see the world. I interpret the "joke" as Fukuyama trying to stop Kagan from continuing with his realist slant. When Kagan objects to states as "economic maximizers" and talks about a timeless "human nature", it's right out of Morgenthau. Economics is subordinate to politics, and Thucydides is the The Man. Right after that, Fukuyama is right back on contemporary empirical observations.

I tend to agree with Fukuyama more. I like Thucydides, after years of reading realist authors, I see the same pattern with realism as I do with micro-economics: it's a useful model, but it's not reality. And, just as micro might be good for firms to practice, realism really doesn't go beyond statesmen. I think 2008 CE is different than 500 BCE, because every agent counts. Some agents might think like realists, but in 2008 CE, the world is a very complicated place full of internet users, jurists, legislators, activists, anarchists, executives, lawyers, etc. It might be blissfully expedient to create a hierarchy in which each agent has interests and value, but really hackers and anarchists have not gotten the memo, that they're not as importantas the political interests of another hierarcy of states, and neither have non-governmental organizations. The history of those agents working above their pay grade is very important.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:40 PM
Baltimoron Baltimoron is offline
Deactivated User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Busan, South Korea (ROK)
Posts: 1,690
Send a message via Skype™ to Baltimoron
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

I'm glad Fukuyama took Keynes' side on the question of Germany and the lead-up to WW2. I read that a few years ago, and I thought, "Wow! If Keynes weren't a Lord someone would have locked him in an insane asylum!" I favored the argument, but I knew it was a minority, yet expert, report. Recall Keynes was a member of the British diplomatic delegation.

But, as far as realists clinging to human nature (and constructivists would argue that 'human nature' is a social construction), I' always impressed how consistently realists skip over Morgenthau's equilibrium, that posits both conflict and cooperation. Again, it looks like the "free market', but still the world is supposed to balance out, not descend into slaughter.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:42 PM
Baltimoron Baltimoron is offline
Deactivated User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Busan, South Korea (ROK)
Posts: 1,690
Send a message via Skype™ to Baltimoron
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Kagan jumped out of cerebral realism there into popular ideology for a moment.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:44 PM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Balt:

Yes, "realism" sometimes has little to do with reality, it would appear, at least from hearing Robert talk about it. He makes the term sound like codeword for "assume the most militaristic/hegemonic motivations on the part of every other country always, and plan accordingly."
__________________
Brendan
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:47 PM
Baltimoron Baltimoron is offline
Deactivated User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Busan, South Korea (ROK)
Posts: 1,690
Send a message via Skype™ to Baltimoron
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

I think this sequence of events demonstrates again the collision of bureaucracies and personalities, all with different interests and views, that is international relations. Missile defense looks to become another example of path dependency. Que Zbigniew Brzezinski to keep Russia in Europe.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:49 PM
Baltimoron Baltimoron is offline
Deactivated User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Busan, South Korea (ROK)
Posts: 1,690
Send a message via Skype™ to Baltimoron
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

It's that sort of penny-ante back-alley wisdom that keeps Bush's swagger from appearing as the empty bravado it really is.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 08-01-2008, 11:55 PM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Quote:
Originally Posted by harkin View Post
Great opportunity to recommend Kagan's excellent Neocon Nation: Neoconservatism, c. 1776
Good thing you posted this, since the old link is broken.
__________________
Brendan
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 08-02-2008, 12:03 AM
Baltimoron Baltimoron is offline
Deactivated User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Busan, South Korea (ROK)
Posts: 1,690
Send a message via Skype™ to Baltimoron
Default Taiwan Fudge

I was disappointed both Fukuyama and Kagan espoused the establishment view of Taiwan. If only those pesky progressives in the DPP would just sit down and take it up the rear end, so the rest of us could snuggle with the bureaucrats in Beijing! Beijing never does anything bad: who cares about the WHO, those missiles, bad-mouthing us before the 10+ tiny worthless aliies in the world, etc. We all know Chinese is Chinese, even if a significant portion isn't even the race or language group. Can't we all just get along! And, who cares if Taiwan can exist on its own, and most want to stay independent. Hong Kong nicely capitulated, right?

Mr. Wright, we need balance on that topic.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 08-02-2008, 12:17 AM
piscivorous piscivorous is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,593
Default Orwell has Arived

What nonsense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EuropeHere View Post
There is a large body of evidence showing that Russia tried consistently to be part of the mainstream US-led sphere, but that it was firmly rebuffed by Washington. Look up the record and you will see that Putin identified with Washington's goals and played by Washington's rules, yet instead of acceptance, Bush announced and is now deploying another multi-billion dollar tax guzzler, the "missile defense" system that will point nuclear weapons directly at Russia. Not a very friendly gesture. However, Russia continues to build strong ties to EU nations. As to that term "autocracy," only yesterday Medvedev, the president, called on authorities to stop harassing businesses, in a speech widely viewed as a challenge to Putin. He said, "In general, law enforcement agencies and authorities must stop making life a nightmare for business." Russia permanently divided from the West? Hardly. Or from the US? Only if Washington insists.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 08-02-2008, 12:23 AM
AemJeff AemJeff is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,750
Default Re: Orwell has Arived

Quote:
Originally Posted by piscivorous View Post
What nonsense.
It's factually true. What do you mean?
__________________
-A. E. M. Jeff (Eponym)
Magnets - We know how they work!
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 08-02-2008, 12:56 AM
piscivorous piscivorous is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,593
Default Re: Orwell has Arived

Show me these supposed facts. It should be easy to do if they are facts and not fantasy.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 08-02-2008, 12:58 AM
AemJeff AemJeff is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,750
Default Re: Orwell has Arived

Quote:
Originally Posted by piscivorous View Post
Show me these supposed facts. It should be easy to do if they are facts and not fantasy.
Are you suggesting that the missile defense system he described and you highlighted is difficult to document?
__________________
-A. E. M. Jeff (Eponym)
Magnets - We know how they work!
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 08-02-2008, 01:03 AM
Baltimoron Baltimoron is offline
Deactivated User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Busan, South Korea (ROK)
Posts: 1,690
Send a message via Skype™ to Baltimoron
Default Re: Orwell has Arived

Perhaps there are hardier souls with an understanding of the Russian psyche randomly strewn throughout the population- and Piscivorous just happens to be one.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 08-02-2008, 01:07 AM
piscivorous piscivorous is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,593
Default Re: Orwell has Arived

What I asked for was facts. What I get, as per usual , is rhetoric. And if the statement ""missile defense" system that will point nuclear weapons directly at Russia" " is factual I would like to see the facts.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 08-02-2008, 01:11 AM
AemJeff AemJeff is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,750
Default Re: Orwell has Arived

Quote:
Originally Posted by piscivorous View Post
What I asked for was facts. What I get, as per usual , is rhetoric. And if the statement ""missile defense" system that will point nuclear weapons directly at Russia" " is factual I would like to see the facts.
Right. Now explain how you point it from here to there without pointing at Russia. Note: the verb used is "point at," not "target."
__________________
-A. E. M. Jeff (Eponym)
Magnets - We know how they work!
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 08-02-2008, 01:27 AM
piscivorous piscivorous is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,593
Default Re: Orwell has Arived

That all depends on the definition of "is." How does the introduction of non-nuclear weapons wind up pointing nuclear weapons at Russia. Is the user privy to the coordinates, that the already existing nuclear weapons, are pointing to? Better yet is this commenter privy to the new coordinates that these already existing nuclear weapons will be pointing to after the introduction of the non-nuclear defensive weapons to Eastern Europe.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 08-02-2008, 01:51 AM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Quote:
Originally Posted by bjkeefe View Post
I have to say that the longer this diavlog went on, the crazier Robert sounded. I kept thinking, "Paging Dr. Strangelove! Paging Dr. Strangelove!" His view of the world, if allowed to sway the thinking of those in power, will do nothing but make things more dangerous and antagonistic.
Matthew Yglesias watched this diavlog and then once again showed his brilliance by completely agreeing with me:

Quote:
I note, for the record, that Kagan's current kick about the need to revive great power conflict is orders of magnitude more wrongheaded and dangerous than the post-9/11 "let's invade Iraq" fad was. My friend DM likes to say that the one good thing about Iraq is that it distracted the neocons from their even crazier war with China schemes, but now those schemes are making a bit of a comeback.
Pay no attention to the fact that his post is timestamped five hours earlier than mine. You so know he hacked that.
__________________
Brendan
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 08-02-2008, 03:53 AM
artoad artoad is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 44
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Bob said something about owing an historical debt to the Kosovars. That's a pretty recent vintage compared to recognition,if not a debt, we owe to the Russians and Serbs for being on the right side of the two major conflicts of the past century. Plus, the Russians were level-headed enough through the Cold War to avert mutual assured destruction. It's a pity I don't have such confidence in our present adversaries who are co-religionists of the Kosovars. I admit it. I've been a bit of a Slavophile ever since I read Rebecca West's "Black Lamb and Grey Falcon". The monasteries, the lakes, the dark icon and candle filled shrines. I know, not something to build a realist foreign policy on but it provided me with enough information and romance to build an affinity for the Slavs and Eastern Orthodoxy. The whole George Bush looking into the soul of Putin was an embarrassment from the git-go. I was touched in spite of myself, however. I preferred to think that Bush was looking into the soul of the Russian people and liked what he saw.
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 08-02-2008, 04:10 AM
AemJeff AemJeff is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,750
Default Re: Orwell has Arived

Quote:
Originally Posted by piscivorous View Post
That all depends on the definition of "is." How does the introduction of non-nuclear weapons wind up pointing nuclear weapons at Russia. Is the user privy to the coordinates, that the already existing nuclear weapons, are pointing to? Better yet is this commenter privy to the new coordinates that these already existing nuclear weapons will be pointing to after the introduction of the non-nuclear defensive weapons to Eastern Europe.
I glossed over the word "nuclear," and I shouldn't have. It doesn't really matter to the argument, though. The weapons must be aimed over Russian territory, there no way to avoid that. The Russians aren't going agree that it's not a threat to them. I have to admit, I have no clue what your last sentence in that graf signifies.
__________________
-A. E. M. Jeff (Eponym)
Magnets - We know how they work!
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 08-02-2008, 07:05 AM
otto otto is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 129
Default Office hours are over!

http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/132...2:36&out=53:32

If you want to discuss that final point, young Kagan, just sign up on the door for a slot next week.
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 08-05-2008, 12:14 PM
dtlmetsfan dtlmetsfan is offline
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 2
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Hm, interesting discussion here for sure.
Josh Xiong has pretty good discussion of Kagan and China here:


http://joshxiong.com/?p=53
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 08-05-2008, 02:22 PM
a Duoist a Duoist is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 108
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

The current debate about whether the autocracies are the 'model' for economic development in the future misses the one great weakness of the autocrat: a disdain for open inquiry. There is simply no way that a political/economic system that supresses criticism can innovate and create at a level that an open system does.

Give China credit for its accelerated development after the incremental reforms since 1979. And give Russia credit for its wealth from the surge in energy prices. Yet still, over the long term, human creativity and innovation will make the open societies more wealthy--and hence, more powerful--than the autocracies.

As for Mr. Kagan's 'psychological' analysis of Kaiser Wilhelm, he's on the right track: China's collective social psychology is conservative Confucianism, not radical socialism. Socialism in China is merely one century of a Bandaid on the skin of 25 centuries of Confucius, suggesting that socilaism could eventually implode in China just as it did in the Soviet Union. How autocratic China is going to keep socialism as their favored ideology as they grow prosperous is very problematical, given the long-time psychology of the Chinese people, especially among the 850 million peasants.

As for Russia, neo-classical economics suggests that they are again headed for the 'poverty trap' of natural resource wealth. Plus, the loss of 30 million in Russian population by mid-century (from AIDS) argues against Russia becoming a counter-weight to the American hegemon.

The world is clearly in a transition period, between paradigms. The deciding factor will be the value for open inquiry; the autocrats will have their day in the sun, but eventually they will not be able to keep up. Either they open their system to objective criticism, or they will again 'lag' behind the growth of the open societies.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 08-05-2008, 04:18 PM
bjkeefe bjkeefe is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Not Real America, according to St. Sa家h
Posts: 21,798
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

a Duoist:

Agree with your view that societies encouraging open inquiry have the long term advantage.

One quibble:

Quote:
Plus, the loss of 30 million in Russian population by mid-century (from AIDS) argues against Russia becoming a counter-weight to the American hegemon.
Don't they have equally effective drugs in Russia for treating HIV/AIDS as we do here? Or is there a problem with distribution or cost or something?
__________________
Brendan
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 08-06-2008, 08:30 PM
January January is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 46
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Yes, many thanks to the Wondrous Wright for making this diavlog happen. I learned much and, yes, it's tedious to hear, but this diavlog reminded me of why I prefer liberal thinking, most of the time. Fukuyama was flexible, open to data, and wary of categorical statements. Kagan, on the other hand, has already decided who the villain is in almost any narrative he's presented with. Since he knows who the villain is, all international questions are therefore merely questions of prosecution and punishment.
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 08-07-2008, 05:38 PM
Carney Carney is offline
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 7
Default Re: The Rise of the Autocracies

Quote:
Originally Posted by EuropeHere View Post
Bush announced and is now deploying another multi-billion dollar tax guzzler, the "missile defense" system that will point nuclear weapons directly at Russia. Not a very friendly gesture.
Now wait a minute.

Missile defense is not "pointing nuclear weapons directly at Russia". It's pointing missiles at the sky, ready to strike, NOT people or nations, but OTHER MISSILES in flight, as they are coming in. And no one has even seriously proposed to have such anti-missile missiles be armed with nuclear warheads, although that would make the job MUCH easier, requiring far less precision. The fact that missile defenses are conventionally armed is what makes making it work so difficult, aiding the hoots, jeers, and derision of the Left and anti-Americans who for some bizarre reason insist on making sure we are all vulnerable to ballistic missile attack.

The only thing ballistic missiles are a threat to is the status quo we all have now of being completely helpless to stop an incoming ballistic missile, able only to track and watch it as it inexorably approaches its target. We can of course currently retaliate, and fire missiles back at the shooter, but NOT AT THE MISSILE he fired.

So left-wing humanitarians prefer the President face a terrible choice of doing nothing at all in response to ballistic missile attack, or retaliating in kind with terrible loss of life on the other side. The third choice of intercepting and neutralizing the attack with nobody dying is to be hysterically opposed with slander and scorn.

As for poor misunderstand, warm and cuddly Putin who just longs to make friends, let's recall that Reagan with SDI and W. today have both offered to share missile defense technology with Russia as part of a joint system, only to be turned down.

Last edited by Carney; 11-25-2009 at 12:23 PM..
Reply With Quote
 


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.