Originally Posted by Wonderment
There is still a credible allegation of rape. That's why the charges haven't been dropped yet (although I believe they will be).
The problem is that it's not a winnable case where the standard is a unanimous verdict by a jury of 12 beyond a reasonable doubt.
If DSK is victim of anything, it's Roman Polanski fallout. American police are, post-Polanski, prejudiced against rich French elitists accused of sex crimes who are sitting in first class cabins about to leave the country and presumably escape arrest and prosecution. The police made mistakes due to the flight risk.
In any other case -- let's say it was Anthony Wiener, for example -- there would have been no quick arrest without building a bullet-proof case first.
This will probably play out like the Kobe Bryant case (and the Polanski case for that matter): a big payout to the victim to avoid a civil suit and some reputation consequences for the alleged perpetrator (convicted child rapist in the Polanski case). If nothing else comes out, DSK will be a martyr in the eyes of his French admirers and a scumbag in the eyes of many others.
Polanski went on to have a great post-rape-and-fugitive career. Kobe went on to sports greatness and gazillions in corporate endorsements. Maybe DSK can still become president of France.
At this point I'm fairly skeptical of a payout. The information about the accuser keeps getting worse and worse, and it's conceivable at this point that she could end up in prison herself. I'm thinking this may be more like the Duke lacross case than the Kobe case.