Fearless Predictions (Heather Hurlburt & Daniel Drezner)

[Sulla the Dictator]

Originally Posted by Simon Willard

Well, Iran is more militarily robust than Iraq was.

Tell me what you think of this scenario: US imposes sanctions. Iran tries to close the gulf. US intervenes to protect shipping. Iran sinks two oil tankers. US bombs Iranian naval assets. Iran throws a fit; declares war; fires on US ships. Obama ignores declaration; takes advantage of confusion to bomb some known Uranium enrichment facilities. Iran's leadership is in chaos. Romney is tongue-tied. Obama wins election; removes sanctions, declares peace.

That is a pretty unhappy scenario. I find it hard to see Obama taking the opportunity to hit the Iranian nuclear program. I also think that an Iranian attempt to close the straights would be a huge escalation from a sanctions regime. If the US didn't make such a closure an act of war, we would be engaged in suicidal diplomatic malpractice.