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Old 12-28-2011, 10:30 AM
Simon Willard Simon Willard is offline
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: The sylvan exurbs west of Boston Massachusetts.
Posts: 1,328
Default Re: Heather Hurlburt & Daniel Drezner

Originally Posted by Sulla the Dictator View Post
That is a pretty unhappy scenario.
You make good points, but let me flesh out the argument.

Originally Posted by Sulla the Dictator View Post
I find it hard to see Obama taking the opportunity to hit the Iranian nuclear program.
Obama is not the timid peacenik detractors make him out to be. Evidence for this is his expansion of drone attacks along the Afghan border and the bin Laden raid.

Originally Posted by Sulla the Dictator View Post
I also think that an Iranian attempt to close the straights would be a huge escalation from a sanctions regime.
This is where it gets interesting. Because the situation is win-win for Obama, he can be bold and dial-up the painfulness of the sanctions. If Iran's leadership doesn't take the bait, they may face the kind of increasing domestic restlessness that threatens their hold on power.

Originally Posted by Sulla the Dictator View Post
If the US didn't make such a closure an act of war, we would be engaged in suicidal diplomatic malpractice.
This is where Obama's cool-headedness is a virtue. Why must war be a binary choice? See the drone argument above. My assumption is that the US can force open any closure of the straights with the application of a little military force. Problem solved. And if the timing is right, election won.
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