Originally Posted by rfrobison
Ah, but the scenario you paint would be little different from Clinton's victory in 1992, though the margins are tighter. Ross Perot won something like 12% of the popular vote
Not disagreeing with the substance of your analysis, but I just want to mention that Ol' Ross got 19% of the vote. Kind of amazing, if you think about it.
Previous election weirdness:
White conservatives gave 13.5% of the vote and 46 electoral votes to George "Segregation Now, Segregation Forever" Wallace in 1968.
15 electors from Mississippi and Alabama pledged their 15 electoral votes to segregationist Harry Byrd in the 1960 election, which Kennedy won with <50% of the popular vote.
White conservatives gave 39 electoral votes to the segregationist Strom Thurmond in the 1948 election. Thurmond won 87% of the popular vote in Mississippi, 80% in Alabama, 72% in South Carolina, and 49% in Louisiana.
It's interesting to note that Obama's share of the white vote in Mississippi was 10%, and 12% in Alabama.