Go Back   Bloggingheads Community > Diavlog comments
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Notices

Diavlog comments Post comments about particular diavlogs here.
(Users cannot create new threads.)

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-26-2011, 10:00 PM
Bloggingheads Bloggingheads is offline
BhTV staff
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,936
Default Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-26-2011, 10:58 PM
graz graz is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,162
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Yes, Eli we did like it. Thanks to Hans also. A follow up would be great.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-26-2011, 11:27 PM
opposable_crumbs opposable_crumbs is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 504
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

I usually bristle when Eli makes an appearance, but I agree, he did a fine job, despite granting someone like Bawer the seriousness he does not deserve. Eli previously has condemned antisemitic writings coming out of the Middle East as providing validation for extremists, maybe the work of Pam Geller et al will now be viewed in a similar light, rather than showcased on CNN.

The notion of a demographic threat that people like Steyn talk about (Norway is 2% Muslim) or talk about no-go ghettos is toxic and seriously overblown, much like the hysteria surrounding 'creeping Sharia' in the USA, as if Muslim immigration to the USA has suddenly ballooned or something.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-27-2011, 02:46 AM
Sulla the Dictator Sulla the Dictator is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 1,364
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by opposable_crumbs View Post
The notion of a demographic threat that people like Steyn talk about (Norway is 2% Muslim) or talk about no-go ghettos is toxic and seriously overblown, much like the hysteria surrounding 'creeping Sharia' in the USA, as if Muslim immigration to the USA has suddenly ballooned or something.
In Norway. But not in France, or the Netherlands.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 07-27-2011, 08:02 AM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by opposable_crumbs View Post
The notion of a demographic threat that people like Steyn talk about (Norway is 2% Muslim)
Such a tiny minority, and yet five years after publishing the cartoons, and despite apologizing, the editor of the evangelical magazine still has to have security. Such a tiny minority, and yet responsible for 100% of the rapes in Oslo. And Norwegian leftists/intellectuals actually justify this sort of thing. Anthropologist Prof. Unni Wikan: "Norwegian women must take responsibility for the fact that Muslim men find their manner of dress provocative. And since these men believe women are responsible for rape, the women must adapt to the multicultural society around them."

Quick, start talking about the atrocities of the Roman Emperor Theodosius to divert attention from these facts.

Terrorism is only the symptom.

Quote:
Originally Posted by opposable_crumbs View Post
or talk about no-go ghettos is toxic and seriously overblown, much like the hysteria surrounding 'creeping Sharia' in the USA
And when a judge in New Jersey says that a man has the "right" to rape due to the fact that rape is normal in his Islamic culture (see the statistics above), that's not "Sharia". Sure, it was overturned, but I don't think we should be at the mercy of appeals courts. Obviously, there are some messed up judges out there. What if the judges of the appeals court were as messed up as the trial judge?
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 07-27-2011, 12:43 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Such a tiny minority, and yet five years after publishing the cartoons, and despite apologizing, the editor of the evangelical magazine still has to have security. Such a tiny minority, and yet responsible for 100% of the rapes in Oslo.
"Note: statistics for "Assaults involving rape" does not include domestic- and date-rape."

And, of course, we know that domestic rape and date rape make up an infinitesimally small portion of rapes.

I wonder if there's any link to the actual statistics from some kind of reputable source that would bear this claim out, even with the truck-sized provisio noted above

You know, a site with actual stats, like, say, this:

http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/0...-03-20-en.html
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 07-27-2011, 02:07 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
"Note: statistics for "Assaults involving rape" does not include domestic- and date-rape."

And, of course, we know that domestic rape and date rape make up an infinitesimally small portion of rapes.
Wrong! Most rapes are carried out by someone the victim knows, but that does not (necessarily) make it date-rape. As for domestic rape, that refers to marital rape. My best guess is that Muslims will be underrepresented in the former category and overrepresented in the latter.

But if you think that being responsible for 100% of "assaults involving rape" in Oslo makes the Islamic community looks good, then by all means, be my guest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
I wonder if there's any link to the actual statistics from some kind of reputable source that would bear this claim out
Norwegian public television is not good enough for you?

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
You know, a site with actual stats, like, say, this:

http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/0...-03-20-en.html
That's for the whole of Norway, not Oslo, which we were discussing. Also, it lists them by 'citizenship', so any immigrant who has attained citizenship would be listed as 'Norwegian'.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 07-27-2011, 02:19 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Wrong! Most rapes are carried out by someone the victim knows, but that does not (necessarily) make it date-rape. As for domestic rape, that refers to marital rape. My best guess is that Muslims will be underrepresented in the former category and overrepresented in the latter.
Well, bravo, you got the irony. Yes, most rapes are carried out by acquaintances in one way or another- neither you nor I know anything about what proportion of rapes in Norway are non-date and non-domestic (I would suspect this doesn't include just formally married couples given civil partnerships in Norway). In any case, that huge caveat already makes the "100% of rapes in Oslo" claim false.

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Norwegian public television is not good enough for you?
It's strange to me that there's no way of independently verifying that claim in any other place available. So, no, a very brief segment of one person speaking on Norwegian public television isn't good enough for me, any more than any claim made on PBS but apparently completely unverifiable without reference to itself would be to any rational person.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 07-27-2011, 02:24 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Well, bravo, you got the irony. Yes, most rapes are carried out by acquaintances in one way or another- neither you nor I know anything about what proportion of rapes in Norway are non-date and non-domestic (I would suspect this doesn't include just formally married couples given civil partnerships in Norway). In any case, that huge caveat already makes the "100% of rapes in Norway" claim false.
I said 100% of the rapes in Oslo. I do not object to your re-formulation as 100% of the non-date and non-domestic rapes in Oslo. Maybe you think it makes the Muslims look better, but I don't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
It's strange to me that there's no way of independently verifying that claim in any other place available. So, no, a very brief segment of one person speaking on Norwegian public television isn't good enough for me, any more than any claim made on PBS but apparently completely unverifiable without reference to itself would be to any rational person.
The politically correct Norwegian public television cites a police report. I'm pretty sure that you wouldn't doubt a similar article in the New York Times. Or maybe you would, when it's convenient.

Of course, you and I both know that you are only being skeptical because you don't like the result.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 07-27-2011, 03:06 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post

Of course, you and I both know that you are only being skeptical because you don't like the result.
Oh, sure. And if there was a comment made on German public television that Muslims are a net positive for German society, you wouldn't at all be interested in getting more confirmation of that?

Of course, I am going to be skeptical of anything you present about Muslims. You have demonstrated mythical levels of bias. I initially assumed it was true, but wanted information about the exact time frames covered, how new this was, etc. But I was unable to find anything other than a variety of fascist websites lauding this as evidence that dirty muslims are coming for the white women.

Added: I made the mistake of clicking on the channel of the guy who provided this clip. In addition to muslim rapists, I have thus far learned that women's rights will destroy Europe, God hates atheists, and the like. Check out your fellow anti-rape advocate:

http://www.youtube.com/user/blogspotKitmanTV

I finally tracked down the report, here. Hows your Norwegian?:


https://www.politi.no/vedlegg/lokale...dlegg_1309.pdf

A helpful internet denizen translated a relevant portion here; a post by ddt says that the categories of rape translated as domestic and date are broader than they are here, including rapes by anyone with whom the victim had a pre-existing relationship:

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=7410989

"Gross generalisations about how Oslo's rapists are foreigners and predominantly muslim are both erroneous, inaccurate and unfortunate. Of the 152 known perpetrators who were reported in 2010, 3/4 have European citizenship, mainly Norwegian. Half have ethnic roots in Europe and again mainly in Norway. The remaining perpetrators had origins from various continents and countries. Besides Norway as the most common country of origin with 50 perpetrators, 9 were from Pakistan, 8 from Iraq and 7 from Lithuania, to mention the largest groupings. The ethnic profile of perpetrators varies within the differing crimes and types of rape, but the differences are so minute that it is the similarities that become apparent. For all types of rape except assault rapes European perpetrators are the majority, most of them Norwegian. The assault rapes, however, only covers 5 identified, unique perpetrators. They do have foreign origins, but 2 were very young (less than 18 years of age) and 2 were diagnosed with serious psychiatric conditions and can not be seen as representative of their ethnic culture."

Last edited by miceelf; 07-27-2011 at 03:31 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 07-27-2011, 06:54 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Oh, sure. And if there was a comment made on German public television that Muslims are a net positive for German society, you wouldn't at all be interested in getting more confirmation of that?
Net positive is a value judgment, not a factual statement. German TV might claim that Muslims are a net positive for the German economy, but that does not detract from the fact that there are other than economic aspects to their presence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Of course, I am going to be skeptical of anything you present about Muslims. You have demonstrated mythical levels of bias.
You apparently think that I have control over Norwegian public television. Don't worry, that is not the case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Added: I made the mistake of clicking on the channel of the guy who provided this clip. In addition to muslim rapists, I have thus far learned that women's rights will destroy Europe, God hates atheists, and the like. Check out your fellow anti-rape advocate:
That's not really relevant to the point, as he is not the source, Norwegian public television is (and ultimately, the police of Oslo).

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
They do have foreign origins, but 2 were very young (less than 18 years of age) and 2 were diagnosed with serious psychiatric conditions and can not be seen as representative of their ethnic culture."
So the other three can be seen as representative of their ethnic culture? Interesting. Also, the fact that marrying family members is rather common in Islamic cultures, leads to a higher incidence of mental illness. Not claiming that this is necessarily the cause of the mental illness of these two individuals, just noting.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 07-27-2011, 09:27 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
You apparently think that I have control over Norwegian public television. Don't worry, that is not the case.
No, I just think that it's trivially easy to get an isolated statement from someone that may or may not be in context, may or may not be factual, and may or may not be later contradicted in the actual presentation as appeared on Norwegian public television.

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
So the other three can be seen as representative of their ethnic culture? Interesting. Also, the fact that marrying family members is rather common in Islamic cultures, leads to a higher incidence of mental illness. Not claiming that this is necessarily the cause of the mental illness of these two individuals, just noting.
Sure, yes, let's have a detailed policy discussion based on the five exemplars in the class of rapists that you cited out of the hundreds which are more representative. So, now we're amending "all rapists" to "5/152 who happen to all fit into a particular, and relatively rare group."

if you break it down to such a molar level, you can find some particular type of crime that's only done by a certain group. It's a real world example of the multiple comparison problem in statistics, and in this case even more so, because if it was any other group in Norway, we wouldn't hear about it, and certainly not from you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_comparisons
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 07-28-2011, 08:41 AM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
if you break it down to such a molar level, you can find some particular type of crime that's only done by a certain group. (...) [I]n this case even more so, because if it was any other group in Norway, we wouldn't hear about it, and certainly not from you:
If it were symptomatic of a broader issue, which Islamic rape is, then I would. Let us not forget that in Islamic countries, children are married off to perverted old men (in the tradition of the 'prophet' Muhammad, who married a 6-year-old girl when he was in his 50s) and women who are raped need four witnesses (or eight females, as women are only half as human as men in Islam) or *they* are the ones who face punishment for adultery. Sometimes, women are stoned for the crime of being raped, like the 13-year-old girl in Somalia I mentioned. Sometimes, women who have been raped are murdered by their family for having violated the "honor" of their family by being raped. Now that is not even medieval, as even the pre-medieval Saint Augustine stated (in the context of the story of Lucretia) that there is no shame in being raped.

Such is the religion of peace. My apologies for showing my bias by presenting these facts, I know that I'm supposed to hide them and justify everything that happens in the Islamic world to not be a bigot, racist and Islamophobe.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
No, I just think that it's trivially easy to get an isolated statement from someone that may or may not be in context, may or may not be factual, and may or may not be later contradicted in the actual presentation as appeared on Norwegian public television.
It's a whole news story. It's not an isolated statement. It's like an article from the New York Times, which you would presumably not dispute - though I won't put anything beyond you, should you not like the facts pointed out in said article.

Also, if it's trivially easy, go ahead and find me a 3 minute news story from public television that is inaccurate in its central claim. Not so trivially easy, is it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Sure, yes, let's have a detailed policy discussion based on the five exemplars in the class of rapists that you cited out of the hundreds which are more representative. So, now we're amending "all rapists" to "5/152 who happen to all fit into a particular, and relatively rare group."
Actually 5/5 who happen to fit into a particular and relatively rare group.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 07-28-2011, 08:55 AM
sugarkang sugarkang is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Cali, Small-Govt Liberal
Posts: 2,186
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
If it were symptomatic of a broader issue, which Islamic rape is, then I would. Let us not forget that in Islamic countries, children are married off to perverted old men (in the tradition of the 'prophet' Muhammad, who married a 6-year-old girl when he was in his 50s) and women who are raped need four witnesses (or eight females, as women are only half as human as men in Islam) or *they* are the ones who face punishment for adultery. Sometimes, women are stoned for the crime of being raped, like the 13-year-old girl in Somalia I mentioned. Sometimes, women who have been raped are murdered by their family for having violated the "honor" of their family by being raped. Now that is not even medieval, as even the pre-medieval Saint Augustine stated (in the context of the story of Lucretia) that there is no shame in being raped.

Such is the religion of peace. My apologies for showing my bias by presenting these facts, I know that I'm supposed to hide them and justify everything that happens in the Islamic world to not be a bigot, racist and Islamophobe.
I share your outrage at these atrocities. I also share your outrage that liberals are largely silent on these matters. However, have you considered Bob Wright's argument that perhaps with the advance of civilization, these religions tend to evolve and temper themselves? Remember when the United States didn't have, you know, stuff? Maybe that has something to do with it? There are horrible things in the Old Testament (that's the fun one, right?), but Jews aren't that scary. Even the ones with the curly hair on the side.
__________________
The mixing of populations lowers the cost of being unusual.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 07-28-2011, 09:13 AM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by sugarkang View Post
However, have you considered Bob Wright's argument that perhaps with the advance of civilization, these religions tend to evolve and temper themselves?
I have considered it. Time will tell, but I am pessimistic. It depends on whether one thinks that an Islamic reformation is even possible. However, I think it's hard to turn Islam into a religion of peace without repudiating their prophet, their Koran, their hadith and most of Islamic theology, but hey, stranger things have happened.

Of these sources, the Koran is the least abominable. For example, whereas it has many violent verses, it also mentions that there is no compulsion in religion. However, the problem is the their prophet is the divinely inspired source of the Koran, and his actions do not exactly comport with a peaceful interpretation of the Koran, which would be difficult enough (but perhaps possible) if the Koran were standing on its own.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sugarkang View Post
Remember when the United States didn't have, you know, stuff? Maybe that has something to do with it?
It does, but stuff is not all there is. For example, there are many Christian countries who do not have stuff, and while I definitely think that they are civilizationally deficient and would not want to live there, they are hardly as unpleasant to live in as Islamic countries, with or without stuff. I know, some people visit the UAE and claim that it's just as good as Western countries, but behind the civilized veneer, there is something rotten in the state. For example, a French boy who is kidnapped and raped by a few men has to flee, for fear of prosecution. Just one example.

And the fact of the matter is that people with stuff are often people who turn to Islamic radicalism and terrorism. We all know Osama bin Laden, but I have also heard that the supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood are often middle class.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sugarkang View Post
There are horrible things in the Old Testament (that's the fun one, right?), but Jews aren't that scary. Even the ones with the curly hair on the side.
Sure, but there are significant differences. First of all, the major branches of Judaic theology do not take the Old Testament literally. Maybe the ultra-Orthodox do, but even the ordinary Orthodox don't. Cf. Islam, where it is not only the case that all theological branches take the Koran literally, but that it is regarded as uncreated and eternal (like Jesus in Christianity). Secondly, Judaism does not have universal pretensions, the more 'extreme' Judaic branches even hold that you can't convert to them. Compare that to Islam, which regards the infidel world as the "House of War" (Dar-al-Harb) that has to be conquered.

Just two differences from the top of my head. I'm sure there are more, because you simply can't compare religions like that, there are too many important differences.

By the way, I also do not like the Jews with curly hair on the side. They're generally crazy, make outrageous demands, and engage in practices I disapprove of. I do like secular and liberal Jews, and I think anti-Semitism is the stupidest bias in the world. But like I have stated before, criticism of a belief system is not bigotry in any way, shape or form.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 07-28-2011, 09:37 AM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by sugarkang View Post
I share your outrage at these atrocities. I also share your outrage that liberals are largely silent on these matters. However, have you considered Bob Wright's argument that perhaps with the advance of civilization, these religions tend to evolve and temper themselves? Remember when the United States didn't have, you know, stuff? Maybe that has something to do with it? There are horrible things in the Old Testament (that's the fun one, right?), but Jews aren't that scary. Even the ones with the curly hair on the side.
Furthermore, going through a period of barbarity happens with all monotheisms. Look at Christianity 800 years in. It was a pretty ugly picture. Someone with apple's perspective would have been arguing about the inherent evilness of Christianity and proof-texting the hell out of selected passages from the old testament.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 07-28-2011, 09:50 AM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Furthermore, going through a period of barbarity happens with all monotheisms. Look at Christianity 800 years in. It was a pretty ugly picture.
What was wrong with Christianity during the reign of Louis the Pious? And please avoid the anachronisms I always get from people who know absolutely nothing about history, and only know of generic "Christian atrocities" during the Middle Ages. It's as ridiculous as saying that Spain expelled the Jews around the year 2000.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Someone with apple's perspective would have been arguing about the inherent evilness of Christianity and proof-texting the hell out of selected passages from the old testament.
That would be hard to do, since Christianity has never taken the Scriptures literally (except for fundamentalists in the 20th century), and Muslims do. Also, you have the problem of that being the OLD Testament - and if you don't know why it's called that, I suggest that you read Paul's letter to the Galatians.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 07-28-2011, 09:35 AM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Also, if it's trivially easy, go ahead and find me a 3 minute news story from public television that is inaccurate in its central claim. Not so trivially easy, is it?
I don't need to. I just found one from Norwegian public television that's much more a propos of the current discussion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Actually 5/5 who happen to fit into a particular and relatively rare group.
Your original statement was all rapes in Oslo. That got amended to all rapes in Oslo that weren't domestic or date rapes (and it turns out that the working definition of both are broader than you assumed).

So, yes, all of the 3.2% of rapes in Oslo that fall into a very particular category. All five of them. That's really indicative of a broad brushed conclusion to make about an entire class of people in the western world.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 07-28-2011, 09:56 AM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
I don't need to. I just found one from Norwegian public television that's much more a propos of the current discussion.
Actually, you didn't, because the claim it made was actually accurate. Also, since you are so fond of statistics, I calculated for you what the chances are that the five assault rapists happened to be Muslims by chance.

About 20% of the population of Oslo comes from Islamic countries. That makes the random chance that a rapist is from an Islamic country .2. Now, in order for five assault rapists to all be Muslims, we need to get .2^5, which is .00032, or 00.032%

So there you have it. There is a 00.032% chance that the five assault rapists just happened to be Muslims, and a 99.968% chance that their Islamic background had something to do with it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Your original statement was all rapes in Oslo. That got amended to all rapes in Oslo that weren't domestic or date rapes (and it turns out that the working definition of both are broader than you assumed).
Correct, but as you can see, being responsible for five out of five assault rapes is no laughing matter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
So, yes, all of the 3.2% of rapes in Oslo that fall into a very particular category. All five of them. That's really indicative of a broad brushed conclusion to make about an entire class of people in the western world.
Really? What did I say about an entire class of people? Only the facts, ma'am. I did criticize their ideology for being far too accommodating to rapists and pedophiles, which (hopefully) is no crime.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 07-28-2011, 10:28 AM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Actually, you didn't, because the claim it made was actually accurate. Also, since you are so fond of statistics, I calculated for you what the chances are that the five assault rapists happened to be Muslims by chance.
And your quotation of it was entirely misleading.

As your maths, yes, post hoc you have identified a single class out of literally scores of crimes in which all of the criminals were from foreign countries. (not necessarily muslims, of course, just from muslim countries; leaving aside of course the impact of gender/age rates- what propotion of men between 15 and 40 are from Muslim countries?). That's leaving aside that the majority of the rapists in Oslo come from Christian or secular countries. The odds of finding a very small subclass of crimes that are entirely committed by a group are very high with enough exotic subgroups. IN this case, you have taken roughly 1 28th of the rapes and focused on them, because they happened to fit your claim. The other 27 28ths did not. It's the difference between the odds of coming up with three heads in a row and coming up with three heads in a row in 30 different attempts. And of course, there's no particular reason to have focused on this particular form of violent crime. Had there been a single norwegian assault rapist, and all five of the assaults with a tire iron been conducted by people from Muslim countries, you'd be crowing about that. Given the much larger number of violent crimes, your selection of the five that happen to fit your stereotype, out of the hundreds of groups of five that didn't suddenly starts to get really silly really quickly.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 07-28-2011, 01:23 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
And your quotation of it was entirely misleading.
Actually, it wasn't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
As your maths, yes, post hoc you have identified a single class out of literally scores of crimes in which all of the criminals were from foreign countries. (not necessarily muslims, of course, just from muslim countries; leaving aside of course the impact of gender/age rates- what propotion of men between 15 and 40 are from Muslim countries?).
I made the calculation on the basis of information available to me. If you can do better, based on more information, be my guest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
The odds of finding a very small subclass of crimes that are entirely committed by a group are very high with enough exotic subgroups.
It's not a small subclass of crime, it's non-domestic, non-date rape. In other words, it's what people generally think of when they say 'rape'. 100% of these rapes were committed by people from Islamic countries.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
It's the difference between the odds of coming up with three heads in a row and coming up with three heads in a row in 30 different attempts.
Actually, it isn't. The odds of coming up with three heads in a row is .125, much higher than the chance of having five people from Muslim countries be rapist, which is .00032.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Had there been a single norwegian assault rapist,
That is hardly extraordinary. About 60% of the people in Oslo are Norwegians. So when there is one rapist, the chance of this person being Norwegian is .6, which (as you know) is a much higher chance than .00032.

By the way, I still don't have a list of the Christian atrocities during the age of Louis the Pious. Are you going to provide such a list, or are you going to backtrack?
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 07-28-2011, 01:27 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
It's not a small subclass of crime, it's non-domestic, non-date rape. In other words, it's what people generally think of when they say 'rape'.
not at all. It's one very small subclass of what people think of when they think of 'rape.' Most people don't consider a rape by an acquaintance to be anything other than rape. There were 152 of those in Oslo. There were five of your 'what most people think of when they think of rape.'

And, yes, 5 is in fact a small subclass of 157.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 07-28-2011, 01:29 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
not at all. It's one very small subclass of what people think of when they think of 'rape.' Most people don't consider a rape by an acquaintance to be anything other than rape.
Learn to read, buddy. I didn't say that people don't consider date rape to be rape, I said that people *think* of a man jumping at them from the bushes when they think of rape. That does not mean that they would not consider your example rape.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
There were 152 of those in Oslo. There were five of your 'what most people think of when they think of rape.'
And 100% of those were committed by people from an Islamic country. I have already demonstrated that this is highly unlikely to be due to chance, and that their beautiful religious background therefore has something to do with it.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 07-28-2011, 02:02 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
And 100% of those were committed by people from an Islamic country. I have already demonstrated that this is highly unlikely to be due to chance, and that their beautiful religious background therefore has something to do with it.
You certainlly did not. For one thing, you didn't, as I pointed out at least once, take into account age and gender profiles.

And, again, alpha-wise error. You are pretending that if the concentration of muslims was in a different small segment of rapes in Oslo (or of violent crimes; let alone in a different city or country) you wouldn't be drawing exactly the same conclusion. How many western cities are there? How many segements of five rapists if defined in a very narrow way, are there in those cities?
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 07-28-2011, 03:13 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
You certainlly did not. For one thing, you didn't, as I pointed out at least once, take into account age and gender profiles.
And like I've told you at least once, I calculated the chance on the basis of the information that was available to be. Thus far, I haven't seen you come with anything better, so you hardly have the right to criticize my imperfect but useful calculation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
And, again, alpha-wise error. You are pretending that if the concentration of muslims was in a different small segment of rapes in Oslo (or of violent crimes; let alone in a different city or country) you wouldn't be drawing exactly the same conclusion. How many western cities are there? How many segements of five rapists if defined in a very narrow way, are there in those cities?
Probably very few, unless you use ad hoc categories. However, this was no ad hoc category, but a pre-existing one. Also, I have made no secret of the fact that my problem with this, is that it is symptomatic of the broader problem that Islam has with rape and child molestation - no surprise, considering the actions of the founder of Islam.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 07-28-2011, 03:28 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Probably very few, unless you use ad hoc categories. However, this was no ad hoc category, but a pre-existing one. Also, I have made no secret of the fact that my problem with this, is that it is symptomatic of the broader problem that Islam has with rape and child molestation - no surprise, considering the actions of the founder of Islam.
Then why Oslo? Why not Dearborn? Or Chapel Hill? You mean, you said, "i am going to pick a western city at random, and then see what the rape profile of people committing stranger rape is in that city, and what proportion of those people are from Muslim countries?" What was the list of western cities that you selected Oslo from randomly?

Or did you just pick up this particular stat on one of your fascist websites and then run with it?

If you have hundreds of Islamophobes searching billions of data points, they are eventually going to find a group of five Muslims that fits their pre-existing bias. Calculate that.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 07-28-2011, 03:35 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Then why Oslo? Why not Dearborn? Or Chapel Hill? You mean, you said, "i am going to pick a western city at random, and then see what the rape profile of people committing stranger rape is in that city, and what proportion of those people are from Muslim countries?" What was the list of western cities that you selected Oslo from randomly?
Because the statistics in Oslo are emblematic for the rape problem that Islamic culture has. It's for illustration, not to prove anything. Also, you are still unable to come up with any credible alternative to my calculation that the chance that religious background played no role is 0.00032.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Or did you just pick up this particular stat on one of your fascist websites and then run with it?
Sure, I'm the fascist, not the people who consider women to be half as human as men.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
If you have hundreds of Islamophobes
Now that's a true nightmare for you, isn't it? You can't even handle one Islamophobe (and Naziphobe), let alone hundreds.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 07-28-2011, 03:56 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Because the statistics in Oslo are emblematic for the rape problem that Islamic culture has. It's for illustration, not to prove anything. Also, you are still unable to come up with any credible alternative to my calculation that the chance that religious background played no role is 0.00032.
Dude, I even gave you a link to a wikipedia explanation for alpha-wise error. I'll see if I can find a link to an explanation that uses smaller words.

I'll try to summarize, as simply as I can. With enough trials, any low-base-rate event will eventually happen. You can't keep rolling your three six-sided dice until you get an 18 and then say "my odds were 0.4%." If you want to create your character that way, it's your game, but everyone but you will know you're cheating.

And it's even worse than alpha wise error because your denominator is literally thousands (western cities and classes of violent crime; there are at least 50 *European* cities as big or bigger than Oslo). You're applying random theory to a statistic that wasn't randomly assessed. Someone went looking for a class of crimes in a western city that contained all muslims.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 07-28-2011, 05:27 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Dude, I even gave you a link to a wikipedia explanation for alpha-wise error. I'll see if I can find a link to an explanation that uses smaller words.

I'll try to summarize, as simply as I can. With enough trials, any low-base-rate event will eventually happen. You can't keep rolling your three six-sided dice until you get an 18 and then say "my odds were 0.4%."
Yes, I know you're a Dungeons & Dragons expert. But actually, the odds of that happening were 0.5% in all of the trials. Of course, not the odds of getting 18 ONCE in a series. Thanks for pointing that out, Captain Obvious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
And it's even worse than alpha wise error because your denominator is literally thousands (western cities and classes of violent crime; there are at least 50 *European* cities as big or bigger than Oslo). You're applying random theory to a statistic that wasn't randomly assessed. Someone went looking for a class of crimes in a western city that contained all muslims.
Really? Norwegian public television went out of its way, looking for a class of crimes that contained all Muslims?

Minimize it all you like, but reasonable people with common sense will see it for what it is. Sorry.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 07-28-2011, 05:43 PM
AemJeff AemJeff is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,750
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
...

Minimize it all you like, but reasonable people with common sense will see it for what it is. Sorry.
I'm not certain how many people would agree that you're an examplar of that class.
__________________
-A. E. M. Jeff (Eponym)
Magnets - We know how they work!
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 07-28-2011, 06:52 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by AemJeff View Post
I'm not certain how many people would agree that you're an examplar of that class.
Don't know, don't care. I don't base my opinions on what other people think.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 07-28-2011, 06:17 PM
miceelf miceelf is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,569
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by apple View Post
Really? Norwegian public television went out of its way, looking for a class of crimes that contained all Muslims?
I think every reader, except you, who has followed this very convoluted conversation has ample information now about the signficance of the fact that 5 out 5 out of 159 rapists in Oslo are Muslim and your elaborate pains to track down that information.

They also have more than enough information to determine whether you are honest and reliable, as a source of information. They also probably have enough of a sample to see whether engaging your casuistry is a worthwhile endeavor.

I certainly do.
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 07-28-2011, 06:55 PM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
I think every reader, except you, who has followed this very convoluted conversation has ample information now about the signficance of the fact that 5 out 5 out of 159 rapists in Oslo are Muslim and your elaborate pains to track down that information.
I think that every reader realizes that you don't have any argument whatsoever, and that you resort to calling your opponents dishonest fascist whenever you feel like you can't defend your position (which is pretty much always). You certainly do have the right to do that, and there is no obligation to be good at anything, so have at it.

.2^5 should not be too difficult for people not named miceelf. Of course, we both know that it's not the calculation that's difficult for you. The problem is that it leads to a result that you don't like. Muslims are angels, and when they're not, you definitely don't want to hear about it. Well, you have that right, too.
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 07-28-2011, 05:57 AM
TwinSwords TwinSwords is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Heartland Conservative
Posts: 4,933
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by miceelf View Post
Added: I made the mistake of clicking on the channel of the guy who provided this clip. In addition to muslim rapists, I have thus far learned that women's rights will destroy Europe, God hates atheists, and the like. Check out your fellow anti-rape advocate:

http://www.youtube.com/user/blogspotKitmanTV
LOL. Wow. I see he has videos on his channel of conservative all-stars Rep. Allen West, David Horowitz, Robert Spencer, Newt Gingrich, and Ann Coulter. He's a run of the mill member of the Republican rank and file. I.e., a hatemonger who is perfectly in tune with the message of the Republican Party, Fox News, and talk radio.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 07-28-2011, 08:42 AM
apple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TwinSwords View Post
LOL. Wow. I see he has videos on his channel of conservative all-stars Rep. Allen West, David Horowitz, Robert Spencer, Newt Gingrich, and Ann Coulter. He's a run of the mill member of the Republican rank and file. I.e., a hatemonger who is perfectly in tune with the message of the Republican Party, Fox News, and talk radio.
Robert Spencer and David Horowitz don't really deserve to be in that list. If you read their writings, you'll see that they are infinitely more rational and reasonable than the likes of Ann Coulter.
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 07-28-2011, 12:57 PM
stephanie stephanie is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 3,921
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Quote:
Originally Posted by opposable_crumbs View Post
I usually bristle when Eli makes an appearance, but I agree, he did a fine job, despite granting someone like Bawer the seriousness he does not deserve.
Hmm, I think we see this about 180 degrees from each other, then.

Okay, that's an overstatement, because on the whole I found the diavlog useful and Eli to be a good interviewer, but that part of it was consistent with my prior reaction to Eli, who is one of my favorite 'heads. But I found Eli's focus on the Bawer piece much more irritating and odd and unjustified by anything in Bawer's own writing. Eli said toward the end that he didn't consider the discussion of Breivik's own writings/goals all that interesting, and I agree, probably, but I don't think Eli really thought through the effect of tying in the Bawer bit or congratulating Bawer for his timing.

I just don't see any way to read the Bawer piece as other than some form of blaming the victim. Okay, Brievik was wrong to kill people, but let's talk about whether his doing so means that people are right to be mad about what he was mad about. Really?

And the argument that we are merely considering how to prevent terrorism by focusing on causes doesn't make sense unless we think Breivik is one of a greater movement, which generally no one is claiming. The issue with regard to his action seems to me more about how come he felt that violence was a reasonable response and whether that's representative of much to worry about beyond him. It's not whether his co-ideologists have genuine grievances. That sounds rather like people responding to 9/11 by saying that this is a good time and reason to talk -- within 24 hours -- about whether we should change our policy on Israel or end the sanctions against Iraq or the like. And some people did, but this was generally seen as problematic for the reasons I just stated, and I'd be surprised if Eli defended it then.

I agree with your point on the threat, also, but even if there was something more to be worried about, there's no way to say "the real problem is immigration and lots of people besides Breivik are worried about it, so let's talk about what to do" as a response to these murders without it sounding like, and IMO without it actually being, a form of saying that the real problem was the policies supported by people politically allied with the murdered kids. I'm somewhat disappointed Eli didn't see this.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 07-26-2011, 11:32 PM
opposable_crumbs opposable_crumbs is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 504
Default Re: Worldwise: Live From Norway (Hans-Inge Lango & Eli Lake)

Good job by both.

The response of the people of Norway has been both dignified and impressive.

The call by the PM for more democracy seems to have already being acted upon as registration for political parties has risen.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 07-27-2011, 05:37 AM
JonIrenicus JonIrenicus is offline
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,606
Default Future home of Breivik?

was curious to see the worlds most "posh" prisons and found this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiZUvDMdnik



looks damn nice, they certainly won't kill him, so it seems he may stay in a place like that for the rest of his days, or maybe less.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnY9K...eature=related




Definitely a pretty large culture difference. I think this is in part because they can afford to be that way. Low crime rates, essentially free money with the massive energy wealth of the nation. A nation of near pacifists, seems to work incredibly well and be a much nicer place, so long as you are dealing primarily with like minds.


Here is another video I found interesting.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysJpG6clmn0#t=1m

skipped to a key section to get to the point, a lady recounts the gunman going empty for a moment, she mentions being with others. There was a gap in time, a lull in his killing spree. Her choice, and presumably the choice of others? to jump out of a window to safety.

I don't know the logistics, but assuming it was feasible, a more hostile response, perhaps a more.. American response, would have been to take that lull in his slaughter due to ammo constraints, and attack him.

They could have died, but they could also have prevented him from killing others. And looking at the video, that option did not even seem to be on the radar of that woman.


that old analogy calls again

a flock of sheep, a very peaceful place to be until they encounter a wolf, the sheeps reaction to the wolf will lead only to the slaughter of more sheep.


We can't all be that pacifistic. Someone needs to stand up to such men. Or maybe no one does, maybe that is a horrible impulse, spawned by destructive and malevolent neocon instincts. If so set me straight.


Last example for now, if Israel had the type of attitude Norwegians had in their neighborhood, I don't think there would be an Israel. But then I guess the leftist would say there would not be a Norway there in the first place. Maybe so, but they are there now, and the Norwegian model would not work so well in every place.

Last edited by JonIrenicus; 07-27-2011 at 05:44 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 07-27-2011, 11:12 AM
Don Zeko Don Zeko is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Exiled to South Jersey
Posts: 2,436
Default Re: Future home of Breivik?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonIrenicus View Post
skipped to a key section to get to the point, a lady recounts the gunman going empty for a moment, she mentions being with others. There was a gap in time, a lull in his killing spree. Her choice, and presumably the choice of others? to jump out of a window to safety.

I don't know the logistics, but assuming it was feasible, a more hostile response, perhaps a more.. American response, would have been to take that lull in his slaughter due to ammo constraints, and attack him.

They could have died, but they could also have prevented him from killing others. And looking at the video, that option did not even seem to be on the radar of that woman.
Impressive, Jon. You are now blaming the unarmed victims of a terrorist attack for failing to stop him, a move which apparently Americans are more capable of than those pansy Europeans. But then I suppose you are the expert on these things, seeing as you watched a youtube video and then imagined that it would have been possible to subdue the gunman. I'm trying to come up with a way for you to be more crass and offensive, but it's just not coming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonIrenicus View Post
Or maybe no one does, maybe that is a horrible impulse, spawned by destructive and malevolent neocon instincts. If so set me straight.
This isn't you being a neocon, this is you being an asshole. Would you say this to the face of the survivors of the shooting? To the relatives of those killed?

Last edited by Don Zeko; 07-27-2011 at 11:17 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 07-27-2011, 11:17 AM
AemJeff AemJeff is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,750
Default Re: Future home of Breivik?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Zeko View Post
Impressive, Jon. You are now blaming the unarmed victims of a terrorist attack for failing to stop him, a move which apparently Americans are more capable of than those pansy Europeans. But then I suppose you are the expert on these things, seeing as you watched a youtube video and then imagined that it would have been possible to subdue the gunman.



This isn't you being a neocon, this is you being an asshole. Would you say this to the face of the survivors of the shooting? To the relatives of those killed?
Are you questioning the manliness of a chickenhawk? How dare you? The fighting 101st will pound any keyboard into submission!
__________________
-A. E. M. Jeff (Eponym)
Magnets - We know how they work!
Reply With Quote
 


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:58 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.