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Originally Posted by Sulla the Dictator
That is a pretty unhappy scenario.
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You make good points, but let me flesh out the argument.
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Originally Posted by Sulla the Dictator
I find it hard to see Obama taking the opportunity to hit the Iranian nuclear program.
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Obama is not the timid peacenik detractors make him out to be. Evidence for this is his expansion of drone attacks along the Afghan border and the bin Laden raid.
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Originally Posted by Sulla the Dictator
I also think that an Iranian attempt to close the straights would be a huge escalation from a sanctions regime.
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This is where it gets interesting. Because the situation is win-win for Obama, he can be bold and dial-up the painfulness of the sanctions. If Iran's leadership doesn't take the bait, they may face the kind of increasing domestic restlessness that threatens their hold on power.
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Originally Posted by Sulla the Dictator
If the US didn't make such a closure an act of war, we would be engaged in suicidal diplomatic malpractice.
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This is where Obama's cool-headedness is a virtue. Why must war be a binary choice? See the drone argument above. My assumption is that the US can force open any closure of the straights with the application of a little military force. Problem solved. And if the timing is right, election won.