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Search: Posts Made By: karlsmith
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-07-2011, 11:49 AM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

Because one year default risk is zero as the ECB has made a one year commitment to stand by Greek debt. Two year default risk is not zero since the ECB may remove this commitment if Greece doesn't...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-07-2011, 11:47 AM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

I am sorry that I am not going to be able to fully engage this but my basic point here is that we really need to do the math on this.

Austerity may or may not be the worst thing that can happen,...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-07-2011, 11:42 AM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

"I am just pointing out that you seem to imply an economic definition to what is ultimately a philosophical problem that the discipline of economics isn't fit to solve. It seems that you would have...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-06-2011, 11:46 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

So the short answer is that as long as the ECB stands ready to buy Greek bonds at parity you don't have to worry about Greece's default. You would only have to worry that the ECB would at some point...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-06-2011, 06:42 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

People say this - about Greece - but I haven't seen the data to back it up. IMF has them achieving primary balance by 2013. What is the justification for saying they couldn't make it besides the...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-06-2011, 02:20 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

I prefer to think of it as second-semester sophomore nihilism combined with optimal control theory.

No, but the core of the issue is this:

If you think of policy as an infinite horizon...
Forum: Diavlog comments 05-04-2011, 02:52 PM
Replies: 398
Views: 37,251
Posted By karlsmith
Re: Flawless Ideas Edition (Matthew Yglesias & Karl Smith)

The idea that Matt was trying to sell me on here is that you actually get less government involvement in the economy overall with a nationalized health care system than with the US system because...
Forum: Diavlog comments 03-30-2011, 08:07 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 11,923
Posted By karlsmith
Re: Yet another fake "debate", Part 430231

I actually downplayed our disagreement. My thought was that intelligent discussion should strive to give the most charitable interpretation of the other person's position. I have received steady...
Forum: Diavlog comments 03-29-2011, 10:29 AM
Replies: 55
Views: 11,923
Posted By karlsmith
Re: Full-Frontal Geeky (Karl Smith & Megan McArdle)

Conn,

Doesn't that show exactly how trivial of an issue this is. Its a little bit less than total farm subsidies and 600B over ten years is out of 160,000B in ten year GDP. So thats about .38%
...
Forum: Diavlog comments 08-07-2010, 02:07 AM
Replies: 128
Views: 32,306
Posted By karlsmith
Re: Science Saturday: Purposes and Futures (Robert Wright & Eliezer Yudkowsky)

Long time watcher, first time commenter. Wright and Yudkowsky together. I haven't even started yet and I am giddy.
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