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Search: Posts Made By: karlsmith
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-07-2011, 11:49 AM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

Because one year default risk is zero as the ECB has made a one year commitment to stand by Greek debt. Two year default risk is not zero since the ECB may remove this commitment if Greece doesn't...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-07-2011, 11:47 AM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

I am sorry that I am not going to be able to fully engage this but my basic point here is that we really need to do the math on this.

Austerity may or may not be the worst thing that can happen,...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-07-2011, 11:42 AM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

"I am just pointing out that you seem to imply an economic definition to what is ultimately a philosophical problem that the discipline of economics isn't fit to solve. It seems that you would have...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-06-2011, 11:46 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

So the short answer is that as long as the ECB stands ready to buy Greek bonds at parity you don't have to worry about Greece's default. You would only have to worry that the ECB would at some point...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-06-2011, 06:42 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

People say this - about Greece - but I haven't seen the data to back it up. IMF has them achieving primary balance by 2013. What is the justification for saying they couldn't make it besides the...
Forum: Diavlog comments 11-06-2011, 02:20 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 7,540
Posted By karlsmith
Re: The Big Interview (Karl Smith & Kelly Evans)

I prefer to think of it as second-semester sophomore nihilism combined with optimal control theory.

No, but the core of the issue is this:

If you think of policy as an infinite horizon...
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