Predictions for 2012?
 

Any want want to make a predictions for the next 12 months?

I'm gonna go with the Mayan's being a bust.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

We'll finally come out of the economy's doom and gloom. Obama will be re-elected. There will be more surprises towards world peace / democracy throughout the globe. A turn down for religious fanaticism. A few more scares regarding Mother Nature letting us know who is the boss. Little will be done towards preventing further AGW, lots of arguing, but perhaps some increased awareness towards the end of 2012.

At the end of 2012, 2013 will start. That's my strongest bet. ;)

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Japan will have yet another ineffectual prime minister, this time someone from the previously dominant Liberal Democratic Party, after the Democratic Party of Japan fails to come to a consensus on raising the consumption tax.

In other words, "Plus ça change..."

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Total TEOTWAWKI Singularity Apocalypsis.

You've been warned!

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Despite a banner year by Carey Price, the Habs miss the playoffs.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

So far, I'm not only the most optimistic but also the most ambitious.

Come on, guys! Think large!

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Greece or Italy, perhaps both, will leave the Euro. There will be an economic panic which will send us back into recession, unemployment will go above 10%, and Obama will be defeated.

Though that will be the least of our problems, as the Middle East becomes unstable from the chaos of "Arab Spring" and commodity prices soar. High energy prices combined with a deep European recession will wreck havoc on the Chinese, causing their growth rate to fall below 6%.

Then things get pretty bad.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

The Elder Scrolls V Skyrim; Will become with the right stew of player created content the best video game of it's type ever made.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

J.K. Galbraith once said that there are two kinds of economists--- those who don't know the future and those who don't know they don't know the future.

But we can be sure of one thing, thanks to Faulkner: The past is never dead. It's not even past.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

wow, strokes for folks, I guess.

Speaking of wow, not so much a prediction as a statement of fact: in 2012, you will be able to play a Kung Fu Panda in world of warcraft.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

What happened to Second Life?

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

I predict: the winning candidate in the 2012 general election for President of the United States will not receive an absolute majority of the popular vote.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Are you predicting a Ron Paul third party run in which Obama (presumably) wins a la Clinton in 1992, or a replay of Bush-Gore in 2012?

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

If JimH is smart, he won't commit to only one of those options. I'd add that the above doesn't exhaust the possibilities. One can easily imagine, without a major third party candidate, someone winning the electoral college, AND the popular vote by something like 49 - 47, with the remaining 3% devoted to a wide variety of marginal characters.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Ah, but the scenario you paint would be little different from Clinton's victory in 1992, though the margins are tighter. Ross Perot won something like 12% of the popular vote, didn't take a single state, and handed the presidency to Slick Willie. Ol' Ross was the epitome of a marginal character if ever there was one. Hard to believe anyone took him seriously.

And smart or not, I'm going to make a prediction on the presidential election: Obama's going to beat Romney in a squeaker; the economy will perk up just enough for him to claim progress, and Romney's lack of charisma and protean -- Man, I love that word! -- character will do the rest.

No We (Republicans) Can't!

[SIGH]

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

I guess the only question is whether your pessimism is wiser than mine.

;-)

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

I don't think RP runs as a third party. Andrew Sullivan had a mini piece a while back on how that would destroy Rand Paul's political future. I think the Republican Establishment understands that libertarianism is their party's future. If that weren't the case, Judge Napalitano wouldn't have a show. The average age of registered Republicans is really old. More freedom or more latinos. Your move Republicans.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Not disagreeing with the substance of your analysis, but I just want to mention that Ol' Ross got 19% of the vote. Kind of amazing, if you think about it.

Previous election weirdness:

White conservatives gave 13.5% of the vote and 46 electoral votes to George "Segregation Now, Segregation Forever" Wallace in 1968.

15 electors from Mississippi and Alabama pledged their 15 electoral votes to segregationist Harry Byrd in the 1960 election, which Kennedy won with <50% of the popular vote.

White conservatives gave 39 electoral votes to the segregationist Strom Thurmond in the 1948 election. Thurmond won 87% of the popular vote in Mississippi, 80% in Alabama, 72% in South Carolina, and 49% in Louisiana.

It's interesting to note that Obama's share of the white vote in Mississippi was 10%, and 12% in Alabama.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Pfft. John Kerry won something like 20% of the white vote in the same places. There are places where the far left doesn't play, go figure. Lets purge them.

Meanwhile, lets all remember that a 95% black voting block is a sign there is something wrong with the Republican party.

Interesting WSJ analysis piece on the '12 election
 

Story is here. Piece has a particular salience for me as it features the slice of Colorado that was my home from age 5, basically through college.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

Agree on the prediction. Though it may end up being less close than many thing. I think there's a good chance that alot of the voters that pollsters assume will stay home (young, minority etc.) may surprise us with strong turnout again.

I truly hope that whether based on an Obama victory, or disappointment in the GOP candidates, that the larger GOP will finally get back to some form of sanity and realize that "refuse to govern" is no way to govern. And that perhaps it's time to stop consistently bowing to the most noxious elements of it's base.

Re: Predictions for 2012?
 

If we're discussing the 1948 election in the Deep South, should the word 'vote' have scare quotes around it?