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-   -   Pennsylvania Vindication Edition (http://bloggingheads.tv/forum/showthread.php?t=1773)

Bloggingheads 04-23-2008 06:00 AM

Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 

Baltimoron 04-23-2008 06:13 AM

Re: HP Link Busted
 
The Huffington Post link from the "New left-wing Jewish lobby formed" link on the "Pennsylvania Vindication Edition" diavlog page is busted. We need a new link!

TwinSwords 04-23-2008 06:33 AM

Re: HP Link Busted
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Baltimoron (Post 74806)
The Huffington Post link from the "New left-wing Jewish lobby formed" link on the "Pennsylvania Vindication Edition" diavlog page is busted. We need a new link!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/warren...y_b_97548.html

osmium 04-23-2008 07:50 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
wow, the first bloggingheads with an ad? shortlists, was that it?

edit: i see it over there to the side now, veryshortlist. cool. the fact that the video ad only runs on you once, that's a nice touch--noticeable but unobtrusive.

Baltimoron 04-23-2008 07:54 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
It's a sign of the apocalypse!

It's time to stop watching bhTV!

AemJeff 04-23-2008 08:19 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
The only presidential candidate I've ever voted for who actually won that election was Bill Clinton. And since his second term wasn't really much in doubt that means I've only cast one effective presidential vote in my life. My primary record is even more dismal, with a perfect zero percent success rate. I've been dithering between Obama and Hillary for months, maybe leaning slightly towards Obama, but as I've said before: I don't care who wins as long as the the winner in November isn't a Republican. So, yesterday was the primary in PA, a beautiful perfect morning to walk to my local polling place - a gentle breeze at sixty-eight degrees, chirping birds and flowering trees under blue skies - and pull the lever for Obama. At that moment Obama must have heard a thunderclap, as the skies darkened and a bony finger revealed itself among the clouds pointing his way while a low voice chuckled unpleasantly.

Ok, maybe it's not all about me. I still really only care that whoever emerges from the primary process on the Dem side is an effective candidate, and it increasingly looks like both of them are dismayingly incompetent. I would like, at some point, to feel as if my political judgment was shared by a majority of my neighbors - but right at the moment it looks to me like McCain is trending toward consensus support.

Which, getting back to my first point, is somehow appropriate - I would have strongly considered voting for him in 2000 - I wasn't a fan of Gore's at the time - so naturally he was womped by the most ridiculous opponent imaginable; this time I've decided that I couldn't vote for him under any circumstances, and right now, at this moment, it appears as if the skids are greased, his glide path to the Presidency seemingly assured.

Or maybe I'm just depressed - it's still a long way to November.

piscivorous 04-23-2008 09:34 AM

Clearly an Obama meltdown
 
Given that Senator Obama outspent Senator Clinton 4:1 and the late deciders still went for Senator Clinton says to me that Senator Obama's stitch is starting to wear pretty thin.

Gravy 04-23-2008 09:42 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Maybe the endless polling activity has alienated the voters to the extent that a sizable fraction just lie in exit polls simply to mess with the pollers' heads. You don't really need an excuse to lie to a poller; it's just a fun thing to do. Plus you get a fun bonus later when supposedly serious guys like Bob and Mickey try to assign a rationale to it and super bonus when Bob goes even further to draw some kind of expectations dynamic from the polling data. But be careful' you can't lie with an easily observable pattern. Flip a coin 20 times and assign a lie to heads and truth to tails and you are probably set for a good 10 years of polls you may be subjected to. A more complex methodology would be required where you have multiple potential lies available, but I'm sure if we all put our heads together we can find it.

piscivorous 04-23-2008 09:49 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AemJeff (Post 74812)
The only presidential candidate I've ever voted for who actually won that election was Bill Clinton. And since his second term wasn't really much in doubt that means I've only cast one effective presidential vote in my life. My primary record is even more dismal, with a perfect zero percent success rate. I've been dithering between Obama and Hillary for months, maybe leaning slightly towards Obama, but as I've said before: I don't care who wins as long as the the winner in November isn't a Republican. So, yesterday was the primary in PA, a beautiful perfect morning to walk to my local polling place - a gentle breeze at sixty-eight degrees, chirping birds and flowering trees under blue skies - and pull the lever for Obama. At that moment Obama must have heard a thunderclap, as the skies darkened and a bony finger revealed itself among the clouds pointing his way while a low voice chuckled unpleasantly.

Ok, maybe it's not all about me. I still really only care that whoever emerges from the primary process on the Dem side is an effective candidate, and it increasingly looks like both of them are dismayingly incompetent. I would like, at some point, to feel as if my political judgment was shared by a majority of my neighbors - but right at the moment it looks to me like McCain is trending toward consensus support.

Which, getting back to my first point, is somehow appropriate - I would have strongly considered voting for him in 2000 - I wasn't a fan of Gore's at the time - so naturally he was womped by the most ridiculous opponent imaginable; this time I've decided that I couldn't vote for him under any circumstances, and right now, at this moment, it appears as if the skids are greased, his glide path to the Presidency seemingly assured.

Or maybe I'm just depressed - it's still a long way to November.

I would never want to be accused of mental abuse, by contributing to someones depression, but this was just to nice a vehicle to to pass up by decorating it with this semi humorous opinion piece by P.J. O'Rourke 24 Hours on the 'Big Stick'

As I know that many here would not be found dead reading anything from the Weekly Standard I offer this
Quote:

Some say John McCain's character was formed in a North Vietnamese prison. I say those people should take a gander at what John chose to do--voluntarily. Being a carrier pilot requires aptitude, intelligence, skill, knowledge, discernment, and courage of a kind rarely found anywhere but in a poem of Homer's or a half gallon of Dewar's. I look from John McCain to what the opposition has to offer. There's Ms. Smarty-Pantsuit, the Bosnia-Under-Sniper-Fire poster gal, former prominent Washington hostess, and now the JV senator from the state that brought you Eliot Spitzer and Bear Stearns. And there's the happy-talk boy wonder, the plaster Balthazar in the Cook County political crèche, whose policy pronouncements sound like a walk through Greenwich Village in 1968: "Change, man? Got any spare change? Change?"

Scoop Jackson 04-23-2008 09:54 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Bob and Mickey are missing a big part of the story in PA. Bob tries to take comfort in Obama closing the gap from 20% in early polls to 10% in final results. But he misses the regional differences, and surprisingly Mickey fails to chide him. The gap closed only because Obama gained ground in Philly and Pitt urban and surburban counties. In the rest of the state (in what we might call "the gun clinging regions") Obama didn't close the gap, and may have actually lost ground. In many SW PA counties, Obama lost by 40% or more. In NE counties, he lost by 30%. This despite record ad buys and much personal campaigning in these regions. His chief surrrogate, Bob Casey, is based in NE PA but that was no help to Obama there. The voters in those counties heard Obama's message loud and clear but they aren't buying it even a little bit.

This has significance far beyond Pennsylvania. These counties share many characteristics with key swing counties in OH, TN, VA, WV. Losided losses in exurban and rural Applachian counties put Democrats well on the road to losing tight general election campaigns. Just ask Al Gore and John Kerrey. Or Karl Rove.

AemJeff 04-23-2008 10:06 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Actually, Pisc - that was a pretty good piece.

piscivorous 04-23-2008 10:09 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Yea I thought so myself.

deebee 04-23-2008 10:11 AM

Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
It's beginning to look more and more like Hillary may actually BE "Election" movie heroine Tracy Flick, the newly appointed Student Council president, who in the end opines that no one would have been hurt if they'd just accepted destiny and left well enough alone. We shall see; could happen.....

My reaction of Obama's shoulder brushoff was the same as Bob's.

The flag pin issue is stupid but effective because so many people reflexively cling to the Flag in all its forms (especially since 9/11).

Ayers -- not really an unsavory enemy to engage but someone who gave Obama one of his first State Senate fundraising parties. I believe that all or most of the recent Obama revelations were outlined in a Rolling Stone article about his radical roots but the press chose to conveniently ignore them because they so wanted to rid themselves of the annoyingly persistent "Tracy" Clinton.

Abu Noor Al-Irlandee 04-23-2008 10:16 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
It should be noted for the record that the final margin was not 10, but (with 99. something percent counted) actually 8.6.

Bloggin' Noggin 04-23-2008 10:32 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Hi Abu Noor,
Where did you get that figure? TPM says it was 9.4 percent.

osmium 04-23-2008 11:07 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
there was a post on TPM a while back, talking about the effect where obama wins any place with all white people, or more equal white/black populations, but loses anyplace with a moderate african american population. (i'm googling for it, but can't find it.)

is there any economic argument to explain the difference seen between rural areas in, say, PA and iowa? or can it only be explained temperamentally?

i assume they are wary of city-slickers in equal measure both places. is the democratic primary about race? or has clinton successfully become blue collar somehow? if so, that is a remarkable turnaround.

harkin 04-23-2008 11:20 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Nice white-walls Bob!

claymisher 04-23-2008 11:45 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
I've given up on Mickey. I'm not listening to this. Somebody let me know when he gives his unbearable quibbling and starts being interesting.

It's too bad, because Bob Wright is an interesting guy, but nobody is worth listening to Kaus's grousing.

Scoop Jackson 04-23-2008 11:56 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Michael Barone has the best theroy on this, why Obama can do better as people get to know him in the Philly suburbs but find much resistance in the rest of the state. It is more complicated than race.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2...cksonians.html

My takeaways:
--Appalachia is prime "Jacksonian" voter territory, as defined by Barone
--Jacksonians tend to be hawkish on foreign policy. They liked it when Clinton said Iran could be obliterated if necessary.
--They are not too impressed with lofty rhetoric on ecomomic issues. They have heard it all before. They want results and see the Clintons as having produced some economic results in the past. But also see Reagan that way.
--They are pro-gun rights
--They are culturally conservative
--They don't agree with Michelle Obama's attitude towards pride in America
--They don't agree with Rev. Wright on anything, wouldn't have stayed in that church for 20 seconds much less 20 years. They want to seem him completely rejected, not interested in "understanding" him better.
--They don't care if people in NY or LA think they are cool or not.

Obama has done more than offend theses voters, he has shown himself to be completely foreign to their worldview.

John McCain is in many ways an ideal candidate for these voters.

Tough to win PA, OH, TN, VA, WV if these voters are overwhelmingly against you. Tough for a Dem to win the election if he loses all these states.

uncle ebeneezer 04-23-2008 11:59 AM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
I've said it once, I'll say it again, does anyone really think the Hillary supporters are going to vote for McCain or sit out the election. I just don't see it. When the pundits talk about Obama not being able to win big states, they rarely add the important "among Democrats against Hillary." Hillary is a great candidate and has a ton of very loyal followers (who are mostly loyal Dems too). The difficulty of knocking out Clinton in the DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, really doesn't predict how Obama will do in the general election against McCain. I lived in PA for 5 years and I could of told you that no matter how much Obama spent he wasn't going to beat Clinton in PA. For several reasons. Closing from 20 points to 9 would be seen as a huge success by any candidate in a year that didn't involve a Clinton and a media that is just desperate to keep the fight going.

I'm with Bob on this one. After the tidal waves of Rev. Wright and Bittergate, the fact that Obama lost by only 8-9 points shows that he's a pretty strong candidate. When the Hillary fans finally get on board and support Obama, I think we've got a better than average chance at the White House.

David Thomson 04-23-2008 11:59 AM

No rational white person should vote for "Barry" Obama
 
The so-called Bradley factor is often nothing more than rational white self preservation. The radical black establishment and its left-wing white yuppie buddies are out to damage them. "Barry" Obama is a race hustler who made the cold blooded decision to move to Chicago and become "authentically black." Nobody put a gun to his head and forced him to do this. Obama essentially declared war on whites. A vote for Obama is a vote to set back relations in this country a minimum of twenty years.

Whatfur 04-23-2008 12:02 PM

Re: No rational white person should vote for "Barry" Obama
 
Bob kinda says it all...

http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/104...5&out=00:35:58

And why I like Mickey...

http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/104...0&out=00:24:17

popcorn_karate 04-23-2008 12:49 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Its pretty easy at this point to call the election for McCain. Hillary's strategy is the "4 and out" for McCain - at which point she can run again.

I think she will stay in and continue to attack in Barak in ways the Republicans would have had a hard time pulling off, until he is so damaged he can't win. at that time, she can go back to the senate and continue being a republican-lite for four years.

personally, I could not ever vote for Hillary clinton. I'd Rather have McCain - so the democrats can Oppose his policies. With Clintons in power, you get them enacting the republican agenda with democratic support. Then i don't even have anybody to root for in politics. and that sucks.

Scoop Jackson 04-23-2008 12:56 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Obama is hurting himself much more than Hillary's attacks are hurting him.

Bloggin' Noggin 04-23-2008 01:06 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
There's one commenter on TPM who cites your 8.6% number, but when I go to the PA Election Returns site he links to , the actual number I calculate is 9.2%, which, if you're going to round it really should be rounded to 9%.

Abu Noor Al-Irlandee 04-23-2008 01:31 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Yeah, it's 9.2 now, the same site had the margin at 8.6 earlier, I guess it's been updated. (although like I said, even before I thought it had 99 percent of the precincts reporting).

uncle ebeneezer 04-23-2008 01:47 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Matt seems to share my logic here:

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.c...m.php#comments

Popcorn, check out Ross' link on there about McCain. An interesting point from a Conservative.

Namazu 04-23-2008 02:03 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
I think it's been shown that elections are subject to a "bandwagon effect:" in this case, a widespread perception that Obama is the inevitable Democratic nominee is worth a measurable number of votes beyond what he would get in a race that is considered up for grabs. Some people want to be able to say they voted for the winner. Since even the Clinton campaign would have trouble using this for spin without blushing, I doubt we'll hear much about it, but I wonder if anyone knows of a relevant study.

popcorn_karate 04-23-2008 02:06 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
I agree that Obama is the stronger candidate. I didn't see the link you mentioned, but i read Yglesias.

One thought i haven't heard addressed anywhere: 160,000 republicans switched their registration in Pennsylvania to vote in the Democratic Primary(sorry no link). All of Hillaries victories (except new hampshire) have come after the Right wing blowhards started advocating that republicans vote for hillary.

so how many of those hillary votes are just an effort to sabotage the democrats? particularly when hillary is winning the "white, working class male" vote (i.e. republicans for the most part..)

popcorn_karate 04-23-2008 02:15 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Ahhh - i found the Ross Douthat link. good points.

What i see is that the Media Meems decide the election. When the media decided Gore was a liar and Bush just "Folksy", It was obvious to me Bush would end up in office (NOBODY i knew agreed with me when i called that one in May - and of course it took the supreme court to make it work)

The meems this time all point to a republican victory. Hillary is dead in the water, Obama is being branded as unpatriotic and inexperienced, McCain is the Noble warrior, with maybe a small flaw in his character - that he is a "real straight shooter" - too honest for his own good. a laughable characterization of McCain, but that is what the media is pushing, and will continue to push.

RJB 04-23-2008 02:24 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
My analysis of Obama's "Bitter" comment is slightly different from what I have seen or heard. I think that what Obama meant was correct but for him to honestly explain his comment would hurt his position even more than it already has.
My explanation: Add the words "Positions on" before religion or immigration or his other examples. Obama's point was that both parties had let these people down on economic issues and they had no confidence that things would get any better on that count regardless of which party gained the presidency. Therefore, they "cling" to issues on which one party, Republican, does represent their values. Obama cannot explain his comments to that demographic by saying that they are correct, that Democrats will not protect their gun rights or oppose gay marriage or prayer in school or so on.

Anyuser 04-23-2008 02:45 PM

Lysol?
 
I'd like somebody to explain this for me. Mickey is a single, fifty-something, presumably heterosexual, man. Why the hell would he own a bottle of Lysol Cling toilet bowl cleanser?

Whatfur 04-23-2008 02:50 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Actually RJB... No, Obama was not correct...unless you wish to explain why these same people went hunting and went to church the same way (if not more frequently) when the steel industry etc. was still going strong. There may be some bitterness caused by the things Obama and you mention...but it didn't cause them to "cling" to anything and its that part of his statement that made it elitist.

Tyrrell McAllister 04-23-2008 02:56 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by piscivorous
As I know that many here would not be found dead reading anything from the Weekly Standard I offer this
Quote:

Some say John McCain's character was formed in a North Vietnamese prison. I say those people should take a gander at what John chose to do--voluntarily. Being a carrier pilot requires aptitude, intelligence, skill, knowledge, discernment, and courage of a kind rarely found anywhere but in a poem of Homer's or a half gallon of Dewar's. I look from John McCain to what the opposition has to offer. There's Ms. Smarty-Pantsuit, the Bosnia-Under-Sniper-Fire poster gal, former prominent Washington hostess, and now the JV senator from the state that brought you Eliot Spitzer and Bear Stearns. And there's the happy-talk boy wonder, the plaster Balthazar in the Cook County political crèche, whose policy pronouncements sound like a walk through Greenwich Village in 1968: "Change, man? Got any spare change? Change?"

Too bad The Onion beat him to the "Change" gag :P.

Happy Hominid 04-23-2008 02:58 PM

The Vanity of Robert Wright
 
Bob provides us with a profile.

osmium 04-23-2008 03:14 PM

Re: Lysol?
 
next big moment in a debate: obama is challenged about the gay, young femininity of lysol cling. "senator obama, by saying 'cling,' what are you implying about your gay marriage plans? i understand you have the B-52s on your i-pod."

:) i assume he bought it coz he liked the name for a visual aid. now, the bloggingheads concept would be unbridled genius if we could only have a web video of mickey in the grocery store when he found it.

Happy Hominid 04-23-2008 03:15 PM

Hillary and the fight that Obama needed
 
How does the narrative change if Obama wins both Indiana and N.C. in two weeks? This is not particularly hypothetical. He leads in the polls in both states.

While Hillary continues to be "annoyingly persistent", Obama looks to be unfazed and just continues his "above the fray" campaigning. He held a town hall meeting in Indiana this morning and steadfastly refused to get into the mud. Certainly not the mark of a candidate running scared.

This might be annoying to Hillary supporters, who feel victimized by the MSM spin that she is the culprit in making this a dirty election. But if Obama does what most polls indicate likely and gets a double win in two weeks then people might actually give him a huge boost in that they will be sold on him as someone who won without using the "politics as usual" method.

Beating the Clinton machine under any circumstances is worthy of respect. Doing it while she does her best imitation of Karl Rove is even more impressive. She is the one who has made a point of "if you can't handle this pressure, you can't handle GOP pressure and you can't handle White House pressures". If he wins those two states - with all the "pressure" she has put on him, and does it with grace and dignity, there is good reason to suspect that Americans will hold him in pretty high esteem. We need to thank Hillary for setting the bar that Obama will hurdle.

osmium 04-23-2008 03:23 PM

Re: Pennsylvania Vindication Edition
 
it's seemed to me in this primary that the opposite is the case: anytime someone looks poised to be the nominee, the other person gets more votes.

in terms of clinton, mickey calls this mutnemom, or however you spell momentum backwards. i seem to think it happened for obama too, though, after clinton had won new hampshire so big.

i think so many dead heat, too close to call, 50-50 elections for the past decade or whatever is indicative of some kind of mass neurosis. there is a collective will not to decide anything.

otto 04-23-2008 03:25 PM

That - on the right - is an advertisement.
 
Underneath the 'links mentioned in diavlog'.

I thought I would never see the day.

piscivorous 04-23-2008 03:26 PM

Re: Lysol?
 
You think that 50s something single guys don't have to clean their toilets? Talk about stereotypes.


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