Bloggingheads Community

Bloggingheads Community (http://bloggingheads.tv/forum/index.php)
-   Diavlog comments (http://bloggingheads.tv/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=9)
-   -   Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid) (http://bloggingheads.tv/forum/showthread.php?t=6507)

Bloggingheads 02-13-2011 01:07 PM

Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 

Baz 02-13-2011 03:00 PM

Euphoria in Cairo
 
We've had some great discussions lately on Egypt and the middle east as a whole and this was no exception. I wonder whether Hisham or Shadi think the blockade on Gaza will be lifted immediately from the Egyptian side or will the army insist on keeping it in place because of US pressure?

Ocean 02-13-2011 06:20 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Excellent discussion.

Both discussants brought up interesting points and shared insights about the situation in Egypt and how the major parties may pursue their new roles.

Hisham seemed to articulate the voice of those who see the US role from the outside, while Shadi offered the expected, and wishful, perspective of the US as the self imposed partner of all things Middle East.

bkjazfan 02-13-2011 06:21 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
I am glad the Pew Poll was mentioned by Hamid. Hellyer stated that Egyptians were religious conservatives not Islamists. The poll said that 84% of muslims in Egypt thought the death penalty should be used on those who leave that religion. That sounds extreme to me not conservative.

Hamid talked about the Muslim Brotherhood contesting elections and the benefits accrued by it but just briefly. I wish that discussion would have been teased out a bit more - it sounded interesting.

John

johnmarzan 02-13-2011 08:39 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bkjazfan (Post 197985)

Hamid talked about the Muslim Brotherhood contesting elections and the benefits accrued by it but just briefly. I wish that discussion would have been teased out a bit more - it sounded interesting.

John

if you want to know, listen to this hamid diavlog back in nov 2010

http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/32331

-Is Middle East democracy in America’s interest? (00:35-12:21)
-Why Egypt today may be like Iran in 1977 (12:21-19:24)
-What the Muslim Brotherhood would do if in power (19:23-24:53)
-Shadi: Autocracies don’t last forever; let’s prepare for their end (24:55-29:04)
-Gregory: Anti-democratic Arab “exceptionalism” is a myth (29:03-33:55)
-Democracy and separation of mosque and state (33:55-41:13)

sapeye 02-14-2011 02:47 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bkjazfan (Post 197985)
I am glad the Pew Poll was mentioned by Hamid. Hellyer stated that Egyptians were religious conservatives not Islamists. The poll said that 84% of muslims in Egypt thought the death penalty should be used on those who leave that religion. That sounds extreme to me not conservative.

Hamid talked about the Muslim Brotherhood contesting elections and the benefits accrued by it but just briefly. I wish that discussion would have been teased out a bit more - it sounded interesting.

Agreed. I appreciate the quality of the BH discussions on what is happening in Egypt, and this one was especially interesting coming from the actual ground. I would, though, like to hear from someone with a darker perspective about possible chaos or blowback from the last 30 plus years of US foreign policy in the region. Everyone we've heard from so far seems quite sanguine about the potential risk of extremism, and hearing some push back would be useful in developing a balanced perspective. This response from Shadi is telling. http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/342...9:30&out=39:43

sapeye 02-14-2011 03:10 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
This short essay by David Ruccio adds an interesting perspective.
http://anticap.wordpress.com/2011/02...nder-in-egypt/

johnmarzan 02-14-2011 06:31 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Hope Egypt learns from our mistakes...

http://services.inquirer.net/mobile/...20155-xml.html

bkjazfan 02-14-2011 09:55 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by johnmarzan (Post 197992)
if you want to know, listen to this hamid diavlog back in nov 2010

http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/32331

-Is Middle East democracy in America’s interest? (00:35-12:21)
-Why Egypt today may be like Iran in 1977 (12:21-19:24)
-What the Muslim Brotherhood would do if in power (19:23-24:53)
-Shadi: Autocracies don’t last forever; let’s prepare for their end (24:55-29:04)
-Gregory: Anti-democratic Arab “exceptionalism” is a myth (29:03-33:55)
-Democracy and separation of mosque and state (33:55-41:13)

Thanks, I'll do that.

johnmarzan 02-14-2011 11:18 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sapeye (Post 198004)
Everyone we've heard from so far seems quite sanguine about the potential risk of extremism, and hearing some push back would be useful in developing a balanced perspective.

wait for claire berlinski and judith levy's podcast on this at ricochet

http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Upcomi...ire-and-Judith

deecue 02-15-2011 12:54 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
To talk about the US contributing to any arab revolution is difficult. We have no credibility and any hint of our direct involvement or aid to pro-democracy movements only discredits those movements, as it frames the argument in terms of hegemon vs. dictatorship, which is just divisive enough to sap political momentum, especially relative to arguments about people vs. dictatorships. From that perspective, I think we played a positive external role in the context of the Egyptian revolution, and expect and hope that future contributions in Eygpt will be of the same tenor (i.e. minimal and unobtrusive).

johnmarzan 02-15-2011 02:42 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by deecue (Post 198067)
I think we played a positive external role in the context of the Egyptian revolution, and expect and hope that future contributions in Eygpt will be of the same tenor (i.e. minimal and unobtrusive).

if you listened to the arab/ muslim diavloggers who recently discussed egypt, they didn't see the US having any positive role in the egypt crisis at all other than as a hindrance or a fencesitter.

and when they bring up israel (they somehow always manage to do that) in the context what is happening in the middle east, it's not in positive terms. they blame israel for the US not supporting arab democracy quickly enough. all of them seem to be unanimous about this. they seem to be saying: "either you're with us, or you're on the other side."

the US have little influence or credibility with the egyptian street. which means the likelihood of the Muslim Brotherhood winning the leadership position in egypt is very high.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9sMo...layer_embedded

it was a mistake for progressive "realists" and obama to discard bush's "freedom agenda" in the mideast and act all unprepared.

Don Zeko 02-15-2011 03:00 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by johnmarzan (Post 198076)
and when they bring up israel (they somehow always manage to do that) in the context what is happening in the middle east, it's not in positive terms. they blame israel for the US not supporting arab democracy quickly enough. all of them seem to be unanimous about this. they seem to be saying: "either you're with us, or you're on the other side."

It's hardly irrational to bring up Israel when discussing US policy toward Egypt. The Egypt-Israel peace treaty is easily the most important factor in our relationship with Egypt.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnmarzan (Post 198076)
it was a mistake for progressive "realists" and obama to discard bush's "freedom agenda" in the mideast and act all unprepared.

What, exactly, do you think that Bush's "freedom agenda" consisted of in the Middle East? What part of it did Progressives discard? It's not as if Bush was pushing for Mubarak's ouster or making friends with the Muslim Brotherhood. What Progressives have (wisely) rejected are attempts to create democracy by invading and occupying autocratic states and the absurd practice of pushing for elections in the Arab world until the first time an election empowers people that we don't like, as Bush did in Palestine.

The Obama administration was unprepared for the uprising in Egypt because it was surprising. Three weeks ago, practically no one would have predicted anything like this happening. I doubt that any conceivable US government would have responded very differently to events in Egypt than Obama did.

Wonderment 02-15-2011 03:23 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

when they bring up israel (they somehow always manage to do that) in the context what is happening in the middle east, it's not in positive terms. they blame israel for the US not supporting arab democracy quickly enough. all of them seem to be unanimous about this.
Perhaps they are unanimous because it's indisputably true that the US has sided with perverse regimes in the region to the extent that they would tolerate or enable the Israelis. The joint Egyptian-Israeli blockade of Gaza is a perfect example. It's analogous to what happened during the Cold War, where the USA was supportive of every goon and dictator in Latin America as long as they were vehemently anti-Communist. The Muslim Brotherhood of today plays the role of the Ché Guevaras of the 1960s.

That is not to say that the Brotherhood or the Marxist guerrilleros are a good thing. Nor is it to say that the US was directly responsible for Mubarak or Somoza. Nor is it even to say that US policy of dictator-love is cast in stone (Support for the fascistic right in Latin America waned under Carter and waxed under Reagan). But it is to say that everyone's arm in the Middle East gets twisted to support Zionist Occupation. We should not be shocked to find that legitimate voices for freedom throughout the region cry "Ouch!"

johnmarzan 02-15-2011 07:19 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Don Zeko (Post 198077)
It's hardly irrational to bring up Israel when discussing US policy toward Egypt. The Egypt-Israel peace treaty is easily the most important factor in our relationship with Egypt.

To all these arab diavloggers i say, stop blaming israel for this and instead blame the fear of a possible takeover by the muslim brotherhood for america's hesitancy to take sides.

Quote:

What Progressives have (wisely) rejected are attempts to create democracy by invading and occupying autocratic states and the absurd practice of pushing for elections in the Arab world until the first time an election empowers people that we don't like, as Bush did in Palestine.
I don't think the reason for invading iraq was to push for democracy. It was about ending iraq's WMD capabilities and removing saddam. since the coalition forces ended saddam's reign, it couldnt replace one dictator with another dictator. democracy was the best option post saddam. of course, we've heard about bush's "freedom agenda" message, but that was directed more at the other autocracies (allies and foes) in the region plus pakistan.

Quote:

The Obama administration was unprepared for the uprising in Egypt because it was surprising. Three weeks ago, practically no one would have predicted anything like this happening. I doubt that any conceivable US government would have responded very differently to events in Egypt than Obama did.
they were unprepared. http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/32331

bush may have made a mistake with gaza, but he learned his lesson re pakistan when he talked musharraf into step down and encouraged popular former pm benazir bhutto to return to pakistan and run in the new elections. of course, she got assassinated, but that only helped the opposition and made the islamists and musharraf even less popular, and they cruised to an easy election victory. what made this a win-win was that we sided with pakistan's yearning for democracy and at the same time allowed WOT-ally musharraf to save face.

johnmarzan 02-15-2011 07:30 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
.@AJEnglish aljazeera's coverage of demonstrations in Iran has been embarrassing. Shame!!
#25bahman #iranelection #feb14

http://mobile.twitter.com/ashkan_rah...96989158391808

johnmarzan 02-15-2011 07:37 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wonderment (Post 198078)
Perhaps they are unanimous because it's indisputably true that the US has sided with perverse regimes in the region to the extent that they would tolerate or enable the Israelis.

let me say this, the US would have no problem quickly throwing mubarak under the bus, if a sane alternative leader is in sight. Nobody from the reagan admin lost sleep when Saint Corazon Aquino took over from Ferdinand Marcos.

Not4Navigation 02-15-2011 10:45 AM

"Hadn't a clue...as simple as that"
 
Niall Ferguson on Morning Joe.

Wonderment 02-15-2011 07:52 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

let me say this, the US would have no problem quickly throwing mubarak under the bus, if a sane alternative leader is in sight.
I don't know about that. Mubarak as an individual, yes. But there are some very incestuous relationships among US and Egyptian upper echelon military, diplomats and business leaders to disentangle.

What ultimately needs to be intellectually deconstructed and programmatically dismantled is US militarism.

johnmarzan 02-16-2011 12:11 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2011/02...-citizens.html

Scroll past the first 2 paragraphs to the interviews by CNN correspondent Nic Robertson, who tries to get Egyptian protesters to show how much Obama means to them and gets less than nothing:

ROBERTSON: Achmed, you've been here down here on the Square for many days. The United States and the international community. You've just listened to President Obama saying that America will support Egypt if it wants help and assistance, and hopes that there will be a good transition for jobs for the young people. What would be your message for President Obama?
ACHMED: We don't know, actually, who he supports. He serves for his own purposes, and the Egyptian people serve for our freedom and democracy. Any democratic country should see for the people, not for its own purposes....
ROBERTSON: Mustapha is joining me now. We just heard President Obama say that he wants to extend, eh, support and assistance to Egypt and Egyptians if they want any, and he hopes that there are more jobs for the young people in the future. What's your message for President Obama?
MUSTAPHA: Well, my message to President Obama is just, "We started this revolution without any outside help, and we are going to finish it also without any outside help."...
ROBERTSON: Are you pleased that President Obama has come out, however, now and said he supports this change and supports the people and supports the young people and -- and what they've done?
MUSTAPHA: Well, actually President Obama's views were kind of conflicting during the last week... but now he's saying that he's supporting the change....
ROBERTSON: The view from here is one of very happy to now hear that President Obama has swung behind the people.

johnmarzan 02-16-2011 12:16 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Rush Limbaugh: So Harry Smith on CBS' Slay the Nation was talking to the Egyptian Google engineer, Wael Ghonim and they had this exchange about the anti-government protest and Obama. (laughs) So CNN and now CBS, asking all these people in Egypt, "What about Obama? Aren't you happy? Obama did it, right? Obama made it possible. Obama caused the revolution! Obama inspired you. Obama got you freedom. Obama's gonna get you a job, isn't that right?"

CBS HARRY SMITH: President Obama came out several times during the revolution; had things to say. Did it help?

Wael GHONIM: We don't really need him, and I don't think that... I wrote a tweet. I wrote, "Dear Western Governments: You have been supporting the regime that was oppressing us for 30 years. Please don't get involved now. We don't need you."

johnmarzan 02-16-2011 02:06 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
compare what the egyptians are saying now to what the iranians were saying then about bush and america prior to the failed 2009 Green Revolution in Iran

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread119438/pg1

Quote:

For instance, Pulitzer Prize winner Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times who spent an entire week in the country recently wrote, "Finally, I've found a pro-American country. Everywhere I've gone in Iran, with one exception, people have been exceptionally friendly and fulsome in their praise for the United States, and often for President George W. Bush as well." Thomas Friedman another Pulitzer Prize winner and ardent critic of the war in Iraq wrote "young Iranians are loving anything their government hates, such as Mr. Bush, and hating anything their government loves. Iran . . . is the ultimate red state."

sapeye 02-16-2011 05:56 AM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by johnmarzan (Post 198062)
wait for claire berlinski and judith levy's podcast on this at ricochet

http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Upcomi...ire-and-Judith

Thanks.

bkjazfan 02-16-2011 09:56 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
A further thought on Hellyer's assertion that the Egyptians are religious conservatives which appears to be erroring on the side of generousity. 97% of the girls and women in Egypt undergo female genital mutilation.

bjkeefe 02-17-2011 04:51 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ocean (Post 197984)
Excellent discussion. [...]

Agreed. I thought Hisham's perspective in particular was quite useful and informative. I hope we hear from him again soon.

bjkeefe 02-17-2011 05:11 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sapeye (Post 198004)
Agreed. I appreciate the quality of the BH discussions on what is happening in Egypt, and this one was especially interesting coming from the actual ground. I would, though, like to hear from someone with a darker perspective about possible chaos or blowback from the last 30 plus years of US foreign policy in the region. Everyone we've heard from so far seems quite sanguine about the potential risk of extremism, and hearing some push back would be useful in developing a balanced perspective.

If that perspective is out there, and is being held by responsible and informed people, okay. But I have to say, your comment sounds kind of like the way the MSM covers, say, global warming. They hear from a whole range of experts who offer them a range of views, and then they average these all out and say, "What about The Other Side? We must have Push Back, in order to present Balance."

Sometimes the range of what is realistic to expect, from the perspective of informed observers, is just not as wide as the range of one's imagination, or the range that encompasses every paranoid crank out there. So, sure, it's possible to dream up a scenario where some region of the Middle East turns into a nightmare, just as it's possible to dream up some scenario where 99+% of the world's climate experts are wrong. But how credible are such scenarios? And why should something be assigned credibility, just because it stands in stark contrast?

That we're hearing a consensus from a good sampling of people who appear to know what they're talking about should not immediately make one think, "Now, where can I go to hear a completely contradictory point of view?" To be a bit hyperbolic, should we go out and look for someone who says "2+2=5," just because that's a Different View from what most people who know what they're talking about agree upon?

Quote:

This response from Shadi is telling. http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/342...9:30&out=39:43
I disagree. Sounded to me like nothing more than mild joshing between two people who share a perspective that is somewhat at odds with the prevailing view one usually hears from the most prominent American pundits.

bjkeefe 02-17-2011 05:17 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bkjazfan (Post 198155)
97% of the girls and women in Egypt undergo female genital mutilation.

And how many of these girls and women undergo male genital mutilation?

;^)

stephanie 02-17-2011 05:33 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by johnmarzan (Post 198121)
Scroll past the first 2 paragraphs to the interviews by CNN correspondent Nic Robertson, who tries to get Egyptian protesters to show how much Obama means to them and gets less than nothing

It's not Althouse, it's Althouse quoting Limbaugh, so it's misleading to cite the two as separate sources.

It's also misleading to present the interviews without giving us any way to see what was in the part omitted. Let's just say I don't trust Rush's suggest that nothing relevant was there, and I don't think Althouse knows, which makes her willingness to sign on to Rush's little funny rather pathetic.

As for Rush, my take on his interpretation of the CNN piece, even given the selected bits that he showed us, is that it's awfully revealing -- of him. When the reporter was asking about Obama, he didn't mean Obama as a politician, obviously. He was following the usual technique of referring to the president as a representative of the US. He was asking about their reaction to the US and the US's response. And what the quoted people said seems fair enough, IMO, and that a reporter for a US network would want to portray the US is a positive light to people in other countries with whom Americans do generally sympathize, also to be expected. That Rush can't separate this or US interests from his hatred of Obama (or, really, the hated of Obama by his listeners that he plays upon) is consistent with his approach since forever, certainly with the Clinton years, but it's pretty disgusting.

bkjazfan 02-17-2011 09:30 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bjkeefe (Post 198186)
And how many of these girls and women undergo male genital mutilation?

;^)

Probably too many including a CBS news reporter.

Ocean 02-17-2011 11:03 PM

Re: Values Added: Euphoria in Cairo (Hisham Hellyer & Shadi Hamid)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bjkeefe (Post 198184)
If that perspective is out there, and is being held by responsible and informed people, okay. But I have to say, your comment sounds kind of like the way the MSM covers, say, global warming. They hear from a whole range of experts who offer them a range of views, and then they average these all out and say, "What about The Other Side? We must have Push Back, in order to present Balance."

Sometimes the range of what is realistic to expect, from the perspective of informed observers, is just not as wide as the range of one's imagination, or the range that encompasses every paranoid crank out there. So, sure, it's possible to dream up a scenario where some region of the Middle East turns into a nightmare, just as it's possible to dream up some scenario where 99+% of the world's climate experts are wrong. But how credible are such scenarios? And why should something be assigned credibility, just because it stands in stark contrast?

That we're hearing a consensus from a good sampling of people who appear to know what they're talking about should not immediately make one think, "Now, where can I go to hear a completely contradictory point of view?" To be a bit hyperbolic, should we go out and look for someone who says "2+2=5," just because that's a Different View from what most people who know what they're talking about agree upon?



I disagree. Sounded to me like nothing more than mild joshing between two people who share a perspective that is somewhat at odds with the prevailing view one usually hears from the most prominent American pundits.

I agree with the overall comment. I think that Hisham and Shadi offered a reasonable range of opinion by people who are knowledgeable about the region. There's no need to include paranoid speculation. That's ubiquitously found anyhow.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:20 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.