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Bloggingheads 09-22-2008 10:51 AM

Irresponsible Predictions
 
Afterthought

This diavlog was recorded before Saturday's horrific terrorist attack on the Islamabad Marriott. Unfortunately, that event made a prediction Eli makes in this diavlog all too accurate.

--BhTV Staff

[Update: Link fixed.]

TwinSwords 09-22-2008 12:51 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bloggingheads (Post 91898)
Afterthought

This diavlog was recorded before Saturday's horrific terrorist attack on the Islamabad Marriott. Unfortunately, that event made a prediction Eli makes in this diavlog all too accurate.

--BhTV staff

Link's not working.

DWAnderson 09-22-2008 02:30 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
An excellent Diavlog.

Those (like this one) where the participants are appropriately modest about the limits of their knowledge and expertise usually are. They actually provide an opportunity to learn about some interesting (even if contingent) insights.

del 09-22-2008 03:41 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
As a university professor who's published work on the Middle East (which apparently means Eli should slavishly bow down before me) I think conservatives are right to point to both the political AND the career incentives the academy provides. Much like Tom Friedman heads over to a few cafes in Iran and concludes that everyone there loves America, we often conduct what's called a drunkard's search (looking under the lamppost for our lost keys b/c that's where the light is). As a result, we actually get things wrong at least as often as not, and since it's hard to publish work that says, "the status quo is fine, do nothing," I think we tend to get things wrong in sort of an activist direction . . . that doesn't mean Giuliani didn't make a fool of himself, but on that one the electorate has already shown its relative wisdom in summarily rejecting him.

bjkeefe 09-22-2008 05:14 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
Good diavlog. Special shoutout to Eli for standing up for elites.

Wonderment 09-22-2008 05:51 PM

Constraints on McCain's ability to wage war?
 
Impressed as I am with Eli's prescience regarding Islamadad, I'm a lot less impressed by his appraisal of McBomb.

Eli's claim that McCain will not be able to wage wars because he doesn't have a sizable enough ground army is quite dubious.

Certainly McCain can (and surely would) wage air wars and destabilization wars, while financing guerrilla wars all over the planet. He doesn't think he needs a ground army to bomb the bejusus out of Iran or to green-light the Israelis to do the dirty work.

Although McCain opposes a draft, if all hell breaks loose over the Iranian reaction to being bombed, a draft could become inevitable. (That's why we still have draft registration, for just such a national emergency as is likely to be provoked by a reckless warmonger in the White House).

McCain's bellicosity with Russia also increases the probability of a potentially civilization-ending nuclear war. The "We are all Georgians" comment was just as ominous as the "Bomb bomb bomb Iran" comment.

bjkeefe 09-22-2008 06:11 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bjkeefe (Post 91905)
Special shoutout to Eli for standing up for elites.

Follow-up on this theme:

Quote:

Ask yourself: how has "elitism" become a bad word in American politics?

--Sam Harris, reflecting on Sarah Palin

bjkeefe 09-22-2008 06:12 PM

Re: Constraints on McCain's ability to wage war?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wonderment (Post 91906)
Eli's claim that McCain will not be able to wage wars because he doesn't have a sizable enough ground army is quite dubious.

Good point.

gwlaw99 09-22-2008 06:19 PM

Re: Constraints on McCain's ability to wage war?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bjkeefe (Post 91908)
Good point.

What's the counter argument? A draft?

a Duoist 09-22-2008 06:41 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
This duo agrees, sanctions are counter-productive. As for 'targeted' sanctions, by their very nature they invite escalating retaliation. One makes an insult, the other throws a punch, the stricken pulls a knife, at which point everyone grabs for their gun.

Not a very pragamtic way to conduct foreign policy.

uncle ebeneezer 09-22-2008 07:42 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
Wow, this was my favorite line:

Quote:

The next administration must immediately confront issues like nuclear proliferation, ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (and covert wars elsewhere), global climate change, a convulsing economy, Russian belligerence, the rise of China, emerging epidemics, Islamism on a hundred fronts, a defunct United Nations, the deterioration of American schools, failures of energy, infrastructure and Internet security the list is long, and Sarah Palin does not seem competent even to rank these items in order of importance, much less address any one of them.

Ocean 09-22-2008 08:13 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by uncle ebeneezer (Post 91913)
Wow, this was my favorite line:

"The next administration must immediately confront issues like nuclear proliferation, ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (and covert wars elsewhere), global climate change, a convulsing economy, Russian belligerence, the rise of China, emerging epidemics, Islamism on a hundred fronts, a defunct United Nations, the deterioration of American schools, failures of energy, infrastructure and Internet security the list is long, and Sarah Palin does not seem competent even to rank these items in order of importance, much less address any one of them."

Lovely perspective, isn't it?

It makes you wonder about the candidates' sanity. I mean, who would want to pick up this task?

Podger 09-22-2008 08:43 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
There's still time for the State Dept. to consider my (much more irresponsible) idea of sending Cal Ripkin to soothe relations by playing exhibition cricket in Islamabad!

Ray 09-22-2008 10:37 PM

Re: Vapid, Hesitant and Gutless
 
Quote:

President John McCain means Americans will have to settle for stability, peace, and long-term prosperity. Given the alternatives, sounds pretty good.
I don't get it. You pretty much just cribbed sloganeering from McCain's website.

What do you think you're doing?

Kevin 09-22-2008 10:58 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
Matt and Eli's personalities make for an enjoyable dynamic. Set to a backdrop of kids playing in a park. I kept expecting it to break into Belle & Sebastian's "If You're Feeling Sinister."

John M 09-22-2008 11:04 PM

I looked into Suzy Palin's eyes and saw her soul
 
Dear My Georgian Friend Ray,

Quote:

You pretty much just cribbed sloganeering from McCain's website.
As my good friend Dick Cheney would say, "So?"

But that's not why I'm posting on BH today. I'm here because I want to put an end to all this talk about Suzy Palin not being qualified to take over if I am incapacitated or dead.

First off, Alzheimer's patients typically survive 10 years or more from the onset of the disease, and I'm only two years in, so don't worry.

Second, I have looked in Suzy's deep, twinkly, sexy eyes, and I have plumbed the voluptuousity of her palpitating soul.

Here's some straight talk: Suzy has the soul of a white pioneer woman, someone like Annie Oakley who would shoot an Injun or an Islamofascist as soon as look at him.

I know people compare Suzy to Xena, Warrior Princess, especially in the boob department, but that's not accurate because Xena is not American and also allegedly a pagan lesbian.

It's better to compare her to true American heroine Wonder Woman. My gutless opponent, B. Hussein Obama thinks girls should be like the colored lady who broke the law by sitting in the front of the bus -- Rhonda Parks. But real woman warriors look like this: http://www.cinemaretro.com/uploads/wonder-woman.jpg

War is Peace,
John M

Larry Bird 09-23-2008 12:28 PM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
So our foreign policy network is so vast we need not worry about a potential president having zero knowledge of the mid east save a primer from the Israel lobby? I might shock you with the following statment but I don't trust our network to run by itself without some direction from someone who is at least interested in foreign policy. They completly missed on 9\11 and still haven't found Bin Laden but they can run the show without input from a president? I get she won't be on the front lines but I think Eli made it clear he's more concerned about winning the election because the Palin selection should be a scary thought for someone so involved in foreign policy. Bush really wasn't that interested as well and look what we got.

nikkibong 09-24-2008 12:48 AM

Re: Irresponsible Predictions
 
methinks Matt Welch has read Nonzero:

http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/145...05.5&out=28:15

Tyrrell McAllister 09-24-2008 07:18 AM

Eli's such an earnest bloggingheader
 
I just like how much Eli is into doing bloggingheads. He's always trying to get other people to be in diavlogues with him :).

From this one with Welch: http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/145...3:08&out=63:32

And from his previous one, with Heather Hurlburt: http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/141...3:49&out=44:16

It's like he's all, "Hey, guys! Who wants to go hang out at bloggingheads.tv and do a diavlogue?"


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