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TwinSwords
09-02-2009, 01:34 PM
What's going to happen?

(Note the poll above.)

claymisher
09-02-2009, 02:36 PM
What's going to happen?


Whatever Nate Silver says.

AemJeff
09-02-2009, 02:51 PM
Whatever Nate Silver says.

That made me laugh out loud! I agree completely.

JonIrenicus
09-02-2009, 05:56 PM
So many views so few votes, take a guess you all.


I expect the republicans to pick up some seats, not a landslide, but some, in the 1-15 range, the last election with the chosen one against the dark lord was an over stuffed election. It will adjust.

TwinSwords
09-02-2009, 06:38 PM
So many views so few votes, take a guess you all.
I guess it's asking a bit much of people to guess about something that is, essentially, impossible to predict. Mainly I'm curious what people's gut feeling is.


I expect the republicans to pick up some seats, not a landslide, but some, in the 1-15 range

The problem with guessing now is that it depends so much on things that are completely unknown today, such as what will happen with health care reform, and the economy. If Democrats pass meaningful health care reform with a public option and the economy improves, I could imagine the Democrats holding the line or even picking up a few seats. If they pass reform which amounts to a new tax on the poor (individual mandate), and the economy doesn't improve, they will probably get creamed.

Day after the 2010 election, the 2012 presidential campaign begins in earnest.

AemJeff
09-02-2009, 06:49 PM
I guess it's asking a bit much of people to guess about something that is, essentially, impossible to predict. Mainly I'm curious what people's gut feeling is.

...

The fate of an eventual health care, or even the definition of its content, are huge unknowns that will have a large effect on what happens next. Plus Afghanistan is a ripening theme that has a chance to start dominating the news cycles. These ae just the events that we know are likely to be on the table. There are just too many variables at play to even starting to think about this analytically.

TwinSwords
09-02-2009, 07:16 PM
The fate of an eventual health care, or even the definition of its content, are huge unknowns that will have a large effect on what happens next. Plus Afghanistan is a ripening theme that has a chance to start dominating the news cycles. These ae just the events that we know are likely to be on the table.
Good point about Afghanistan. And as you say, there are things that will affect the outcome that we haven't even thought about yet.

One useful thing in going back and listening to old diavlogs or political podcasts from a year ago is to see what people were fixated on at the time - what seemed so important to everyone "in the moment," but which have rapidly faded and been replaced by new momentary obsessions.

It's kind of a given that anyone who answers the poll can't predict the future and is just taking a stab in the dark based on a gut feeling about how things are going right now. Not a big deal, although I realize that people don't like to be wrong, and especially among a hypercompetetive crowd of people, fear of failure is far more intense than it is among ordinary people.


There are just too many variables at play to even starting to think about this analytically.
I don't agree with that. It's too early to make an accurate prediction, but it's not too early to start thinking about it analytically. In fact, for political strategists, not thinking analytically today about elections in 2010 and 2012 would be a form of professional malpractice. I'll grant that nobody reading the forum is (probably) a political professional, but it might be useful for people on the Democratic side to start considering the fact that we could actually lose seats in 2010. Most of the Democrats I know in real life are still high on the 2008 victories and think the Republicans are doomed to political wilderness for years to come. I hear a lot of that talk in the forum, too, come to think of it. I don't know if people are just putting on a brave face, or if they are really that optimistic.

Still, you are right: We have no idea what's going to happen in 2010, and the outcome will depend on things that haven't even happened yet -- indeed on things we haven't even imagined yet. It should be clear that anyone guessing today is guessing based on limited and imperfect information.

TwinSwords
09-02-2009, 07:21 PM
Whatever Nate Silver says.

Nate Silver Sees Major Gains for GOP in 2010
August 13, 2009 03:54 PM ET
By Nikki Schwab, Washington Whispers

PITTSBURGH It's fast becoming conventional wisdom, but statistics wonk Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com reiterated that Democrats should be nervous about the 2010 midterm elections. "I don't think you should feel at all comforted by 2010," said Silver. The political prognosticator predicted a 20- to 50-seat loss in the House for the Democrats and either a one-seat gain or as much as a six-seat loss for the Democrats in the Senate. This comes from the same numbers guru who called the presidential election results correctly in 49 states. "Don't be complacent about 2010," Silver warned bloggers and activists attending the Netroots Nation conference in Pittsburgh.

...

(Source (http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/08/13/nate-silver-sees-major-gains-for-gop-in-2010.html))

TwinSwords
09-02-2009, 07:25 PM
Charlie Cook Predicts Big 2010 Losses For Democrats

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Charlie Cook, who is among the most respected and tested of Washington's electoral handicappers, sent out an update today, warning of bad news on the 2010 horizon for President Obama and his Democratic allies.

"[T]he situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report's Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low.

"Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of dj vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats. A new Gallup poll that shows Congress' job disapproval at 70 percent among independents should provide little solace to Democrats. In the same poll, Congressional approval among independents is at 22 percent, with 31 percent approving overall, and 62 percent disapproving."

...

(Source (http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/08/20/storm-clouds-gather-for-democrats/))

TwinSwords
09-05-2009, 11:29 AM
National Journal, 9-5-2009 (http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20090905_1231.php):

"[T]op Democrats should be very frightened about the sharp drop in support among independents, because it could ultimately threaten their party's hold on the House and shrink their majority in the Senate.

"Independent voters -- fired up by the war in Iraq and Republican scandals -- gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress in 2006. Two years later, independents upset with President Bush and eager to give his party another kick expanded the Democratic majorities on the Hill. Late in the campaign, the economic downturn, together with an influx of young people and minorities enthusiastic about Obama, created a wave that left the GOP in ruins.

"That was then; this is now. For the seven weeks from mid-April through the first week of June, Obama's weekly Gallup Poll approval rating among independents ran in the 60-to-70 percent range. But in four of the past five weeks, it has been only in the mid-to-high 40s. Meanwhile, Democrats and liberals seem lethargic even though Republicans and conservatives are spitting nails and can't wait to vote.

[...]

"With 14 months to go before the 2010 midterm election, something could happen to improve the outlook for Democrats. However, wave elections, more often than not, start just like this: The president's ratings plummet; his party loses its advantage on the generic congressional ballot test; the intensity of opposition-party voters skyrockets; his own party's voters become complacent or even depressed; and independent voters move lopsidedly away. These were the early-warning signs of past wave elections. Seeing them now should terrify Democrats."

Even as recently as yesterday I was hearing pundits on TV blabbering about how "the Republican Party is increasingly composed of aging, white Southerners" and is "a regional party unable to win elections outside the South," giving the Democrats something like "a permanent majority."

bjkeefe
09-05-2009, 11:08 PM
A different take, from aimai: "Very Great Changes At The Last Possible Minute (http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2009/09/very-great-changes-at-last-possible.html)."

Anecdotes, to be sure, but something to think about.

nikkibong
10-08-2009, 10:04 AM
Boehner shouldn't measure the dimensionns on his in-office tanning bed just yet:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125495123152271693.html?mod=WSJ_hps_RIGHTTopCaro usel

TwinSwords
10-20-2009, 07:49 PM
From Greg Sargent's blog, The Plum Line (http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/republican-party/gop-in-same-position-in-generic-matchup-as-in-2008-and-2006/).


GOP In Same Position In Generic Matchup As In 2008 And 2006

Dont look now, but by one measure, the GOP is in the same position as it was heading into the 2008 and 2006 elections, both of which resulted in crippling landslide losses for the Republican Party.

If you look at the generic Congressional matchup in the internals of the new Washington Post poll, youll see that the Dem advantage over the GOP is virtually identical to what it was heading into the two previous Congressional elections.

Right now, the poll finds that when respondents are asked whether they will vote for a Dem or a GOPer in the 2010 elections, 51% pick the Dem and 39% pick the Republican.

In June of 2008 (the most recent historical data in the WaPo poll), Dems led the generic matchup 52%-37%. And in early November of 2006 the Dem lead was 51%-45%. Today the spread is largely unchanged.

Despite this, GOP cockiness about the midterms is widespread. As GOP Rep John Shadegg put it, speaking about health care: If they pass this bill, I wouldnt want to be a Democrat standing for reelection in 2010.

Its true that there are plenty of other factors to weigh against the above numbers. Anti-incumbent fervor is running high. The GOP base, while dwindling in size, is fired up, while the Dem base could prove demoralized if Obama and Dems punt on the public option. Other polls have found a much tighter generic matchup.

But the above numbers suggest that whatever travails Dems are suffering may well be partly offset by the utter failure of the GOP to translate Dem difficulties into any real gains. By the above measure, at least, the end-zone dancing by some in the Republican Party seems way premature.

****************

Update: A Republican writes in to object that the WaPo poll is polling adults, rather than only voters, which the Republican claims historically favors Dems. But Im told that Wapo polls always sample adults, rather than only voters, this far in advance of an election because its not easy to gague so far in advance whos likely to vote.

(Source (http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/republican-party/gop-in-same-position-in-generic-matchup-as-in-2008-and-2006/))