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Foobs
10-22-2008, 05:25 PM
My own creation...

Predicted State Margin = Predicted National Margin + National Random Factor + Predicted State Margin + State Random Factor

Predicted National Margin = 5% (based on current polling and predicted tightening)

National Random Factor is generated randomly with a 4% (absolute) standard deviation and an average of 0.

Predicted State Margin is the difference between the Dem state margin and national margin. It is based on recent elections and polling. For example, Alabama is -31 (meaning that in a tie election, McCain would win it by 31 points) and New York is +13 (in a tie election Obama would win it by 13).

State Random Factor is independently generated for each state with a standard deviation of 4% absolute.

The whole thing is then repeated 10,000 times or so. The results are:

State, Odds of Obama Win, Obama Electoral Count
D.C. , 100%, 3
Hawaii , 100%, 7
Massachusetts , 100%, 19
New York , 100%, 50
Maryland , 100%, 60
Rhode Island , 100%, 64
Illinois , 100%, 85
Connecticut , 100%, 92
California , 99%, 147
Delaware , 99%, 150
New Jersey , 99%, 165
Oregon , 99%, 172
Vermont , 97%, 175
Michigan , 96%, 192
Iowa , 96%, 199
Wisconsin , 94%, 209
Washington , 93%, 220
Pennsylvania , 92%, 241
Maine , 92%, 245
Minnesota , 89%, 255
New Mexico , 89%, 260
New Hampshire , 89%, 264
Virginia , 89%, 277
Colorado , 70%, 286
Nevada , 50%, 291
Ohio , 50%, 311
Missouri , 50%, 322
North Carolina , 43%, 337
Florida , 36%, 364
North Dakota , 19%, 367
Montana , 11%, 370
Indiana , 11%, 381
Georgia , 6%, 396
West Virginia , 2%, 401
Mississippi , 2%, 407
South Carolina , 1%, 415
Arizona , 1%, 425
Texas , 0%, 459
Kansas , 0%, 465
Kentucky , 0%, 473
Arkansas , 0%, 479
Louisiana , 0%, 488
Tennessee , 0%, 499
South Dakota , 0%, 502
Alaska , 0%, 505
Wyoming , 0%, 508
Nebraska , 0%, 513
Alabama , 0%, 522
Idaho , 0%, 526
Oklahoma , 0%, 533
Utah , 0%, 538

Analyzed another way, it gives McCain about a 17% chance of winning and Obama a 20% chance of breaking 350.

Anyway, just good, clean, useless fun...

TwinSwords
10-23-2008, 03:44 PM
Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting it.

I hope you're right!

I am personally hoping the wingnuts and lunatics of the Republican Party are too demoralized to vote and Obama wins with 410 electoral votes and 61% of the popular vote. But I'm scarred enough after years of horrific losses to still fear the worst about November 4. I won't do any bragging or celebrating until November 5.

nikkibong
10-23-2008, 03:46 PM
With all due respect, isn't this the same method used by Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com ?

bjkeefe
10-23-2008, 04:15 PM
Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting it.

I hope you're right!

I am personally hoping the wingnuts and lunatics of the Republican Party are too demoralized to vote and Obama wins with 410 electoral votes and 61% of the popular vote. But I'm scarred enough after years of horrific losses to still fear the worst about November 4. I won't do any bragging or celebrating until November 5.

After 2000, I think I won't do any celebrating until 20 Jan 2009.

TwinSwords
10-23-2008, 04:28 PM
After 2000, I think I won't do any celebrating until 20 Jan 2009.

Yeah, good point...

Foobs
10-24-2008, 04:59 PM
It is certainly similar. I leave out a lot of his complexity where I don't think it helps. Frankly, I don't know enough about his algorithm to know how close it is, but it certainly is similar. But I didn't enjoy my hike at Antelope Island less because I wasn't the first person there : )

The fun of doing it myself is that I got to program in the details. So I got to think about reasonable shifts nationally and in-state...

Foobs
10-24-2008, 05:02 PM
I gather McCain is scaling back in Pennsylvania, which I think is an implicit admission of defeat. Obama has 286 basically in the bag. That means McCain could win every toss-up state and come up short. He then needed to claim some more electoral votes. He could try to cobble together a group of states or go for one big one. the only state big enough to work and close enough to be worth fighting for is Pennsylvania. If McCain is writing off Pennsylvania, I think he's transitioning into 'not get embarrassed' mode.

Granted, the polls COULD be wrong or dirty tricks could take place. The polls would have to be WAY wrong and the dirty tricks would have to be HUGE...